Are temporary foreign workers taking young Canadians' jobs? Here's what experts think

As some federal and provincial politicians argue that Canada's temporary foreign worker program is stopping young Canadians from finding good-paying jobs, some experts say migrant workers aren't to blame and that other immigration streams could be the problem.

Earlier this week, both Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and B.C. Premier David Eby demanded Ottawa scrap or reform the temporary former worker program, claiming it was shutting young people out of jobs and driving down wages.

But Mark Holthe, an immigration lawyer based in Alberta, told CBC Radio's The House that the temporary foreign worker program requires employers to prove there's no Canadian available to do the job and that they're paying the prevailing wage rate.

"It's designed not to put downward pressure on wages," he said.

The real challenge, Holthe said, lies with international students who can obtain open work permits after graduation that can be valid for up to three years.

WATCH | Poilievre wants temporary foreign worker program to end:

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre called on the government to abolish the temporary foreign worker program at a news conference on Wednesday. Poilievre says the program has oversaturated the market with cheap labour, making it challenging for young Canadians to secure employment.

"If you can have someone who says, 'Yes, I will work as the manager of your restaurant and I will for minimum wage,' well, then [employers] will pay minimum wage," Holthe said. "There's no check and balance on it."

According to federal government data, more than a million people had a valid permit to study at a Canadian university, college or CEGEP in Quebec in September 2024.

Holthe said many international students are transitioning to open work permits at any given time, and the sheer volume of international students available to work is likely affecting the labour market for young people.

Meanwhile, a report from Desjardins says Canada's decision to relax work restrictions for non-permanent residents, including allowing international students to work more than 20 hours per week during the pandemic, "led to a sharp increase in the population growth of young workers" between 20 and 24 years old.

"However, as the pandemic moved into the rearview mirror and economic activity normalized, this deluge of available labour well outpaced demand, putting upward pressure on the youth unemployment rate," it said.

The report also cites other possible reasons for today's high youth unemployment, including how artificial intelligence is harming young workers' job prospects and how cuts to the public sector "could have an outsized impact on youth."

"When government budgets are scaled back, youth positions are frequently among the first to go, potentially removing the rung of the ladder between education and long-term career paths," the report said.

According to the latest data from Statistics Canada, youth unemployment stayed high at 14.5 per cent in August.

Fabian Lange, an economics professor at McGill University in Montreal and the Canada Research Chair in Labour and Personnel Economics, said on Thursday that Canada's high youth unemployment "is primarily a business cycle phenomenon."

"Youth unemployment is like a canary in the coal mine," he told David Cochrane, host of CBC's Power & Politics. "It's one of the measures that moves the most with the business cycle."

Because Canadian businesses are grappling with economic uncertainty due to the Canada-U.S. trade war, they're retaining their current roster of employees but not hiring new workers, Lange said.

WATCH | Temporary foreign workers aren't behind high youth unemployment, says economist:

The youth unemployment rate in July edged up to its highest level since September 2010, according to Statistics Canada. Fabian Lange, an economics professor at McGill University, tells Power & Politics that it’s ‘not plausible’ this current spike in youth unemployment would be ‘caused by an increase in temporary foreign workers that has been building up over a much longer time period.’

"Youth unemployment, almost by definition, are all individuals just entering the labour market. They are all looking for jobs. So when hiring slows down, unemployment in that group is going to be the first to move rapidly," he said.

Lange said he expects politicians to propose various programs to tackle the problem, but ultimately Canada's overall economic situation will need to improve before youth joblessness begins to come down.

"If our economy goes into a recession, [and] it seems to be going into a recession, then we will see this increase in youth unemployment. It's almost inevitable," he said.

"If you want to avoid this, try to make this a short and shallow recession. And that's a question for monetary and fiscal policy."

Speaking on Wednesday in Toronto, where he was meeting with his cabinet, Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government is putting policies in place so that immigration as a proportion of the population will decline from seven to five per cent in a few years.

Carney said that when he speaks to business leaders across the country, their top issue is tariffs and their second issue is how to get more foreign workers.

"That program has a role, it has to be focused in terms of its role," he said. "It's part of what we will be discussing — how well the temporary foreign worker program is working and how our overall immigration system is working."

WATCH | PM Carney says government is reviewing program:

Prime Minister Mark Carney said the temporary foreign worker program has a role, but the government is reviewing it along with the immigration system as a whole. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre called for the government to scrap the program on Wednesday.

On the international student side, permits from abroad to study in Canada have plummeted in the first half of this year, with nearly 90,000 fewer issued than a year ago.

Last year, Ottawa also capped the number of hours international students can work off-campus to 24 per week while they're enrolled in classes.

However, they can work unlimited hours off-campus if they're working during a break scheduled by their school, such as summer and winter holidays or reading week.

Holthe said the government's cuts to international student numbers will have an impact on youth unemployment, but "it's going to take a while.... It will take years to flush out."

In June, Statistics Canada reported that the country's population growth stalled in the first three months of the year, making it the sixth consecutive quarter of slower population growth.

StatsCan said part of that decline can be attributed to decisions made by the federal government in 2024 to "lower the levels of both temporary and permanent immigration."

The Desjardins report said if population growth continues to slow or decline due to the federal government's new population targets, Canada's youth population could see better job prospects.

"A reduced supply of labour among Canada's youngest workers should help to better balance supply and demand. This should ultimately bring the youth unemployment rate closer to what we would expect given the state of the economy," the report said.