Kemi Badenoch has one huge problem to worry about as Tory leader

OPINION

Under-fire Tory leader Kemi Badenoch may be confident of staying in her job but how long before some of her backbenchers begin to read the tea leaves and defect to Reform UK instead? Unless the Tories turn the tide quickly, Reform's lead is only going to grow with Nigel Farage now the unofficial leader of the opposition in the House of Commons.

After the May 1 elections it must be panic stations in Tory HQ. Pressure group Briefings for Britain this week calculated that if Reform was to replicate its May 1 local election results at a general election, then it would decimate the Tories and reduce Labour to the same size as the Liberal Democrats.

While many areas where votes did not take place are Labour controlled (and thus Reform's 32% support against 19% for Labour and 18% for the Tories needs to be treated with caution), according to Briefings for Britain if the swing at the local elections took place at the next general election then Reform would win 348 seats out of 650 in the House of Commons, comfortably forming a majority government.

By contrast Labour would crash from 411 seats to 91, only slightly ahead of the Lib Dems on 89. The Conservatives would suffer a second disaster following the 2024 wipeout, winning only 35 seats, 19 of which would be gains from Labour.

By this calculation, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and possible successor Robert Jenrick would be gone. For the Conservatives this would not be a takeover situation (a scenario whereby some analysts suggest Farage would be the leader of the largest party in Parliament but without an overall majority) but total wipeout for the party of Churchill and Thatcher. Forget having to enter a coalition with Reform, this would be an extinction-level event for the Conservatives.

Even if the local elections exaggerate Reform's lead, it is highly possible for Reform to leap from its current poll average of 25% to reach just over 30. At the latter level, we are in the realms of a Reform majority and total Tory collapse. Little wonder rumours persist of a Boris Johnson comeback so desperate have the Conservatives become.

For some freaked out Tory MPs - staring at the end of their political careers - the prospect of jumping ship to Reform must be tempting. Should this take place the seemingly imminent demise of the Conservative Party would only be accelerated.

While Farage nabs votes from Labour as well as the Tories - as was clearly the case in the Runcorn by-election - it is Tory MPs who are more likely to jump. Newly-elected Reform UK mayor Andrea Jenkyns could be the start of a trend. Already leading Tories are hinting at pacts with Reform, rebuffed though these overtures currently may be.

Badenoch may hope to cling to her job. But many of her backbenchers - already smarting from last year's bruising election defeat - could start to decide it's a case of if-you-can't-beat-em-join-em. Reform is now the hot ticket in town for the British Right and Farage its larger-than-life leader. Conservative MPs know they can't all get a post-political gig on GB News. Many might instead seek to leave before being pushed by an electorate craving authenticity rather than a pale imitation