Nigel Farage names Reform UK's biggest enemy as polls point to Tory and Labour disasters

Reform UK is on course to be the second biggest party in Parliament with the Conservatives suffering a devastating defeat and Labour losing its majority, new research reveals. Nigel Farage suggests in a documentary tonight that Reform’s “biggest enemy” will be “ourselves” as the party works to preserve unity and find top quality candidates ahead of a series of key electoral challenges.

Reform would win 208 seats in a general election and the Conservatives would languish in third place with just 89 MPs, according to a projection based on Survation polling. Meanwhile, Labour would be 104 MPs short of a majority, winning in only 222 constituencies. The findings will fuel hopes among Reform supporters the party will grow its support and secure an outright majority at the next general election.

The research was commissioned for a special investigation into whether Mr Farage can become prime minister for tonight’s edition of Channel 4’s Dispatches. Reform is in top position in successive opinion polls and is preparing for next year’s Scottish and Welsh parliament elections – with activists working towards the big ambition of replacing Sir Keir Starmer with Mr Farage in Number 10.

In tonight’s documentary, Mr Farage braces for attacks, saying: “You know, being ahead in politics in some ways is harder than being behind because everything’s going to get thrown at us. I guess our biggest enemy between now and next year and those elections will be ourselves.”

He says Reform has to “maintain a sensible degree of unity, of purpose, and we have to find high quality candidates”.

If Reform can sustain momentum it is highly likely there will be calls for the party to strike deal with the Conservatives before or after the next election.

However, Mr Farage stamps on talk of a deal, telling the programme: “I only deal with people I trust. I don’t trust them.

“After 2019, I’ve no trust in them whatsoever. I think you’re witnessing the death of the party that’s been dominant for a couple of hundred years.”

But former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith points to the Conservatives’ 2010-2015 coalition with the Liberal Democrats, saying: “All coalitions are feasible at the end of the day.”

The polling of 2,000 people drills into the reasons the start-up party has surged in the opinion polls.

Mr Farage is the most popular national party leader in the country, with four out of 10 people approving of his leadership.

More than two-thirds (67%) of respondents said Reform says things others are afraid to say.

Reform commands the strongest voter loyalty. It has retained the support of 92% of people who voted for it last year – the highest of any major party.

More than one in five people who backed the Conservatives in July (21%) now plan to support Reform. This is true for 14% of people who voted Labour.

Reform positions which command strong support include intercepting and returning Channel migrants to France (65%), freezing non-essential immigration (56%) and raising income tax thresholds (56%)

The polling analysis states that “Reform UK’s appeal lies in its anti-establishment voice” but it says this is “tempered by worries about tone and extremism”.

Seven out of 10 participants in the research said Reform must “do more to avoid extreme candidates”. The polling suggest the country is evenly split on whether Reform is racist (42%).

A further challenge is projecting unity. Almost half of respondents (47%) said they believed Reform UK suffered from internal disagreements and infighting which could impact its effectiveness.

But when people were asked how they would vote if there was a general election tomorrow, Reform was in first place (27%), ahead of Labour (25%), the Conservatives (21%) and the Liberal Democrats (12%).

Former Conservative Leader of the Commons Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg says in the documentary that Mr Farage has the “great skill of understanding what the nation is thinking before they think it”.

Sir Jacob admits it is “hard to think of an occasion when the Tory Party has been in greater difficulty”.

In the programme, presented by former Spectator editor Fraser Nelson, Mr Farage defends his approach to combining his political and media careers.

“I’m unconventional,” he says. “I’m completely unconventional, I don’t obey the rules that everybody else obeys. I do things my way.”

Dispatches: Will Nigel Farage Be Prime Minister? airs tonight at 8pm on Channel 4.