Rachel Reeves takes a massive gamble on economy, Labour's future - and her own career

Rachel Reeves has taken a massive gamble - on the economy, on Labour’s political fortunes and on her own future as Chancellor. Her gargantuan spending spree in this week’s eagerly-awaited Spending Review set the clock ticking on all three.

But time is not on her side. The economy is in retreat again, her party is plunging in the polls and the vultures are circling to oust her from No 11. Labour Chancellors tend to stick around, the current incumbent being only their sixth across four governments in sixty years.

Jim Callaghan lasted three years, while Roy Jenkins nearly had the same innings until he was ousted in Labour’s election defeat in 1970.

When they returned to power four years later Denis Healey held the position for five years until the Tories, under Margaret Thatcher, swept into government in 1979.

Gordon Brown was Chancellor for a decade during the Blair era with Alastair Darling becoming the country’s accountant during his own three-year tenure as Prime Minister.

But the likelihood of Ms Reeves being a long-term Chancellor is shrinking, much like the economy.

Official figures show GDP fell by 0.3% in April - the fourth time it has shrunk during her first 10 months in charge of the nation’s coffers.

The Treasury knew this dip was coming.

So it came as no surprise when she delivered her spending blueprint to MPs on Wednesday that the Chancellor reached for Labour’s old comfort blanket of higher taxes, higher borrowing and higher spending.

Ms Reeves splashed out £300 billion in an unprecedented spending spree which will eventually run into the trillions.

But the largesse already means many people in England and Wales will be forking out on higher council taxes to help fund the police - something she didn’t explicitly set out at the dispatch box.

Meanwhile, government borrowing is running at £148 billion, £11 billion higher than forecast, and there is the spectre of further tax hikes to come in the autumn.

Her massive spree means she can point to shiny new infrastructure projects and talk the language of "renewal".

However, Ms Reeves is now running the economy at its uppermost limits after failing to get a grip on welfare and debt.

It is a high-stakes gambit to win over working class voters that Labour is bleeding to Reform UK.

Many of those flocking to Nigel Farage do so out of growing despair that - in his words - "Britain is broken".

It is why she made big plays on pouring money into defence, the NHS and ending migrant hotels.

But voters won't thank the Chancellor if taxes go up even more in a few months time.

Most economists and financial experts believe this is inevitable.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), said she is a "gnat's whisker" away from having to raise taxes in the autumn budget while Tom Clougherty at the Institute of Economic Affairs should be “braced” for hikes.

In announcing a humiliating U-turn on her doomed policy to cut Winter Fuel payments for pensioners, Ms Reeves told the Daily Express she was able to do so because the economy is now on a “sound footing”.

The figures don’t back that up.

As well as Britain’s GDP, borrowing and debt woes there is also the worrying problem of rising unemployment.

During her nightmare Budget last October, Ms Reeves presided over a £40 billion tax raid - the ramifications of which will be felt for years to come.

While her winter fuel grab and inheritance tax hit to farmers and family businesses were politically damaging, the Chancellor’s hike on National Insurance for employers has choked the life out of the economy according to a number of analysts.

This has also been blamed on rising unemployment with the rate now at 4.5%, the highest level since the summer of 2021.

Numbers are expected to rise as the year goes on.

Inflation has been going too, meaning that the cost of living is getting more expensive.

Less people working plus price rises means consumers spend less, stifling economic growth.

Growing the economy was Ms Reeves number one promise when she came into government almost 12 months ago.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has warned that Labour wants to spend more, tax more, and borrow more.

“This won’t fix our problems. It’ll make them worse!,” she said this week.

Of course, Ms Reeves has also had to contend with an increasingly volatile global situation. Donald Trump’s tariffs war has sent shockwaves around the world.

The war in Ukraine grinds on and tensions in the Middle East have never been higher.

There is also the problem of Cabinet tensions.

The Chancellor has effectively just written cheques for every government department, setting out what they can and can’t spend over the next four years.

This followed weeks and months of tense negotiations.

There were winners and losers and relations will no doubt have been frayed.

Wes Streeting got the lion's share of the good news with the NHS receiving a big funding boost while money was poured into John Healey’s defence department.

That was at the cost of the Foreign Office, which suffered major cuts.

Funding for Yvette Cooper’s Home Office was mixed, with more money to tackle illegal migration, but there was anger over police funding.

Angela Rayner will be quietly pleased at a boost for social housing.

But the whole escape has left the Chancellor exposed, according to one Whitehall source.

“This is a problem largely of her own making and she will find that she doesn’t have as many friends around the cabinet table as she might have hoped. This could be a problem going forward for the Chancellor if things don’t start to pick up soon”

But another Westminster veteran was less restrained, saying Ms Reeves is ultimately “doomed”.

“When taxes go up, Labour MPs are going to get it in the neck from their constituents. Once that happens she could be doomed.”

Labour’s poll ratings have dipped alarmingly since their historic general election victory.

A culmination of botched policies, a freebie scandal, soaring illegal migration and a lacklustre economy has seen Sir Keir Starmer’s party fall into second place.

Defeat to Reform UK in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election last month was hugely embarrassing, as were heavy defeats in local elections.

Votes in Wales and Scotland next year could see Labour plunge further behind Reform.

That could be the tipping point for Ms Reeves, especially if economic conditions haven’t picked up and unemployment continues to rise.

A former political strategist said: “This time next year will be a pivotal moment. Obviously a lot can happen in the meantime but if things continue to rumble along in the same manner as they are now then she becomes weaker and weaker.

“By that point you are seriously looking ahead to the next general election and whether you need a change of direction. The same could be said for all political parties but if things aren’t working for the economy in 12 months time then the blame falls with the Chancellor.”

The government is seeking to badge the Spending Review as a turning point.

So often the grumble is one of short-termism, the quick win, the lack of strategic long term thought.

And yet the gamble the government has taken is a willingness for patience in an era of impatience.

And this at a time of volatile politics and a restlessness among an electorate, many of whom feel squeezed and have done for years and years.