Out-of-control Soviet spacecraft could crash into the UK this WEEK, experts warn - as map reveals exactly where the 1,100lbs vehicle could land
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A lost Soviet satellite is crashing back towards Earth, 50 years after it was launched into space.
Scientists predict that a 500kg (1,100lbs) section of the Kosmos 482 satellite could hit our planet anywhere between May 9 and May 13.
Now, an astronomer has revealed where this massive piece of space junk might land.
The bad news is that the UK, along with all of the world's most populated cities, is directly in the firing line.
And to make matters worse, even the experts aren't sure exactly where or when it will come down.
Satellite tracker and astronomer at the Delft University of Technology Dr Marco Langbroek predicts the satellite will land between latitude 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south.
That means anywhere in the UK south of Cambridge, Ispwich, or Milton Keynes is at risk of being hit.
Worryingly, if it does collide with a populated area, Dr Langbroek warns that the out-of-control satellite could prove deadly.
A 500-kilogram section of the Soviet Kosmos 482 satellite is hurtling towards Earth, and experts have now revealed where it might land (artist's impression)
The Kosmos 482 probe was launched in 1972 by the USSR to gather information about Venus.
However, after an engine malfunction, the probe never made it out of Earth's orbit and broke into four pieces.
Two of those pieces burned up over New Zealand within days - although the USSR denied any involvement at the time.
Scientists now believe that an object making its way towards Earth at 17,000 mph is Kosmos 482's landing module, the final missing piece of the probe.
Although it is too early to predict its precise landing location, Dr Langbroek believes it will land within 52 degrees north or south of the equator.
This places almost the entirety of Earth's populated regions and all of the world's most populated cities within the risk area.
Exactly where the craft will land is likely to change right up to the day of landing due to the influence of solar weather which could push it off course.
Likewise, the exact timing of the landing is still uncertain, but most predictions centre around May 10 or the early hours of May 11.
The Kosmos 482 probe was launched in 1972 by the USSR to gather information about Venus but broke up before leaving Earth's atmosphere. Pictured: An earlier prototype of Kosmos 482, the Venera 4
Astronomers now believe a bright object heading towards Earth at 17,000 mph (pictured) is the landing module of the satellite
Satellite tracker and astronomer at the Delft University of Technology Dr Marco Langbroek predicts the satellite will land between latitude 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south.
That means anywhere in the UK south of Cambridge, Ispwich, or Milton Keynes is at risk of being hit.
Dr Langbroek says: 'The risks involved are not particularly high, but not zero.'
Unfortunately, since the landing module's titanium shell was designed to survive passing through the dense atmosphere of Venus, it will likely land on Earth in one piece.
So, this could unintentionally help it to survive the re-entry into Earth's atmosphere rather than burning up into fragments – ultimately hitting the surface.
Dr Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer who tracks satellite re-entries, wrote in a blog post: 'The vehicle is dense but inert and has no nuclear materials.
'No need for major concern, but you wouldn't want it bashing you on the head.'
Dr McDowell adds: 'In which case I expect it'll have the usual one-in-several-thousand chance of hitting someone.'
Speaking to MailOnline, McDowell said: 'If this were to cause damage – or worse, to hurt someone – that would be something that the Russian government would be liable for.'
Despite this, the chances of Kosmos 482 hitting your home are very slim.
The landing module of Kosmos 482 (pictured) was designed to withstand the Venus atmosphere, and so is likely to impact Earth in one piece
The most likely scenario is that the craft will land in the oceans, which cover over 70 per cent of the Earth's surface.
Dr McDowell says: 'If you land something in a random part of the Earth, the chance that it hits a person is about one in 10,000.
'The chance that it hits you is then one in 10 billion – smaller than that.'
When the capsule re-enters Earth's atmosphere at 17,000 miles per hour, it will be surrounded by a shock wave and a burning 'fireball' as the atmosphere compresses beneath the force of its fall, McDowell said.
Friction between the craft and the atmosphere will eventually slow it down to an impact speed between 145 and 157 miles per hour.
Although the landing module was built with a parachute to slow its descent, some astronomers believe these are no longer working.
Dutch satellite tracker Ralf Vandebergh has managed to capture the first set of high-resolution images of the satellite part in orbit.
Speaking to Space.com, Mr Vandebergh says: 'Several frames seems to confirm what I thought to see in the 2014 images, [that] there is a compact ball but several frames show a weak elongated structure at one particular side of the ball'.
Recent images of Kosmos 482 in orbit appear to show that the satellite's parachute is already deployed
Mr Vandebergh speculates that this structure could be the parachute, already deployed in orbit.
With the parachute already out, it would be destroyed by re-entry and unable to reduce the satellite's eventual impact speed.
Dr McDowell says the capsule will therefore 'slam into the ground' like a 'car falling out of the air at 100 to 200 miles per hour'.
However, Dr Langbroek says he has 'strong doubts' that these images confirm the parachute is already deployed.
If Kosmos 482 does slow its descent enough to survive re-entry, the landing capsule may be recoverable for preservation and study.
It wouldn't be the first time that so-called 'space junk' has crash-landed in an inhabited area.
Last year, a mysterious ring of fiery debris from a launch rocket crashed down in a Kenyan village, although fortunately there were no reports of injuries.
And a smartphone-sized chunk of garbage jettisoned from the International Space Station (ISS) failed to burn up during its descent through Earth's atmosphere, falling through the roof of a home in Florida.
If the probe's parachutes are deployed, they will be damaged by re-entry and the landing module will not be able to slow its descent before hitting the planet at hundreds of miles per hour. Pictured: a mock-up of the Soviet Venera 7 probe which has a similar parachute design to Kosmos 482
Back in 2019, a Samsung satellite crash landed in a Michigan family's backyard, still in an impressive state of preservation.
Dr James Blake, a space debris researcher at the University of Warwick, said there are thousands of active and defunct satellites orbiting the Earth.
'This is a fate that awaits uncontrolled satellites and debris that can no longer counteract the drag forces exerted by the Earth's atmosphere,' he previously told MailOnline.
'Indeed, operators are encouraged to speed up the re-entry of their defunct satellites to keep space clear for future missions.'
There are an estimated 170 million pieces of so-called 'space junk' - left behind after missions that can be as big as spent rocket stages or as small as paint flakes - in orbit alongside some US$700 billion (£555bn) of space infrastructure.
But only 27,000 are tracked, and with the fragments able to travel at speeds above 16,777 mph (27,000kmh), even tiny pieces could seriously damage or destroy satellites.
However, traditional gripping methods don't work in space, as suction cups do not function in a vacuum and temperatures are too cold for substances like tape and glue.
Grippers based around magnets are useless because most of the debris in orbit around Earth is not magnetic.
Around 500,000 pieces of human-made debris (artist's impression) currently orbit our planet, made up of disused satellites, bits of spacecraft and spent rockets
Most proposed solutions, including debris harpoons, either require or cause forceful interaction with the debris, which could push those objects in unintended, unpredictable directions.
Scientists point to two events that have badly worsened the problem of space junk.
The first was in February 2009, when an Iridium telecoms satellite and Kosmos-2251, a Russian military satellite, accidentally collided.
The second was in January 2007, when China tested an anti-satellite weapon on an old Fengyun weather satellite.
Experts also pointed to two sites that have become worryingly cluttered.
One is low Earth orbit which is used by satnav satellites, the ISS, China's manned missions and the Hubble telescope, among others.
The other is in geostationary orbit, and is used by communications, weather and surveillance satellites that must maintain a fixed position relative to Earth.
Daily Mail
