Climate policy under Chancellor Merz: There is no way around the climate

The earth continues to heat up. People in Germany and Europe are already dying from the consequences: the floods in the Ahr Valley in 2021, which became more likely and more severe due to climate change, cost more than 180 people their lives. Last year, storm surges killed almost 30 people in Central Europe and more than 200 in Valencia. Every summer, thousands die during heat waves.

The next climate catastrophe will come, also in Germany . And Friedrich Merz will then be chancellor.

Even a black-red coalition will not be able to avoid seriously addressing climate protection. If it does not, its voters will also notice it in their wallets: in 2027, the European CO₂ trading system will be expanded to include buildings and transport, meaning that people across Europe will have to pay a lot more for petrol and heating gas - unless Germany quickly replaces gas heating with heat pumps and district heating and combustion engines with public transport and electric cars.

Climate protection can also be attractive for the Union, which is close to industry and small and medium-sized businesses. The steel and chemical industries can only survive with cheap energy, and in Europe this does not come from imported oil and gas, but from domestic renewables. And gas in general: if Germany wants to become independent of the USA without relying on Russia, that means phasing out gas.

And Friedrich Merz will also want to reform the debt brake and will need to reach compromises with the Greens and the Left Party. This could result in a climate-friendly debt rule.

During the election campaign, Merz was able to talk big without having to worry much about reality. Now he is going to be chancellor. And even if one does not expect Friedrich Merz to suddenly convert to climate realism, there are good reasons not to write off climate protection under the black-red coalition. But to do justice to the extent of the crisis , the opposition and the climate movement still have a lot to do.