Lebanon after Nasrallah’s death: “Hezbollah is definitely in the process of recovery”
Lebanese analyst Yeghia Tashijan on the mourning crowd at the funeral of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah and the chances for peace in the region.
Hassan Nasrallah led the Shiite militia in Lebanon as Secretary General from 1992 until his death in September 2024. He died in a targeted Israeli air strike on Beirut. There is actually a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hezbollah . The Lebanese expert Yeghia Tashijan warns against declaring Hezbollah defeated.
Mr. Tashjian, Israeli fighter jets flew low over Beirut during the funeral of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. How did you experience that day?
I think the Israelis are using psychological warfare. A few days ago there was a loud bang when an Israeli fighter plane broke the sound barrier. Many people in Beirut thought there was another air raid. Perhaps the Israelis thought they could create panic among the many people attending the funeral. But they didn't succeed. People started chanting anti-Israel slogans. For the Shiites in Lebanon in particular, the funeral has strong political and religious symbolism.
Which one? Perhaps one about the downfall of the powerful Shiite militia?
Hezbollah's military power has certainly diminished as a result of the war with Israel . But its fighters still have the will to fight against Israel's land grab in the south of our country. Hezbollah was founded in 1982 after Israel invaded southern Lebanon. Even if the militia were to give up its fight now, other southern Lebanese forces would continue it. But Hezbollah is not just a militia, it is also a political force in Lebanon. And the funeral with tens of thousands of participants showed that it is receiving enormous support even after the liquidation of its top personnel.
So the myth of Shiite resistance has survived Nasrallah?
Hezbollah is definitely in the process of recovery. The funeral speech of the new Secretary General, General Sheik Naim Qasem, was almost pragmatic. Apparently the aim now is to keep Lebanon out of regional wars and to attract investment for the reconstruction of Lebanon.
There is still sporadic fighting in southern Lebanon. Israel has not completely withdrawn. How much pressure is Lebanon under?
The pressure is strong and Israel is violating the ceasefire agreement. My concern is that Israel will not withdraw until there is a deal on Israel's terms.
Which would be?
Israel may be trying to redraw the border line and force Lebanon to give up some villages. This could lead to tensions in the country.
Iran, as Hezbollah's protector, is weaker than it has been for decades. Hassan Nasrallah is dead and in Syria, the ruler Bashar al-Assad has been overthrown. Does this mean that a major war in the region is off the table?
Iran's political and military influence in the region is contained. If Israel were to attack Iran again, I do not expect a strong response from the pro-Iranian "Axis of Resistance," to which Hezbollah belongs. Iran is experiencing a moment of weakness. I believe that is why the Iranians are seeking dialogue with the United States. Domestic political considerations also speak in favor of this. Western sanctions are damaging the Iranian economy and exports. Further internal unrest could ultimately persuade Iran to accept any deal.
Berliner-zeitung
