The Trump principle: As soon as someone stands up, the next push comes

Right at the beginning of his first term, Donald Trump told the world: "I am really smart," a "stable genius." Then he said: "I went to the best college, where I was an honors student." These remarks alone mark a rift in American presidential history. For none of his great predecessors had ever showered themselves with self-praise—no Washington or Jefferson, no Roosevelt or Kennedy, both of whom graduated from Harvard without boasting about it. The Commentary forbade this.

The Washington Post, a persistent Trump detractor, is now reporting something fantastic. Trump has just promised to cut drug prices by 1,500 percent, something that would make even seventh-graders howl. Because, logically, more than 100 percent reduction is impossible. Another self-congratulation pales in comparison: During his second term, gasoline prices in five states fell to $1.99 per gallon (3.8 liters). In fact, gasoline costs over $3 nationwide. Trump on his arithmetic: "No one else could have done it." Two and two makes five, as George Orwell noted in "1984."

Does the victor reap derisive laughter? Only in comedy shows. On the political stage, in the polls, Trump II is doing no worse today than his predecessors in the seventh month of their respective presidencies. Joe Biden received positive ratings of 43 percent, and negative ones of 52 percent. Barack Obama, in this phase of his second term, garnered 46 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval. Trump's ratings today stand at 46 percent positive and 51 percent negative. He has nothing to fear from the people.

Polls, however, are reporting a dismal picture of the Democratic Party. Almost two-thirds dislike it; that's the highest dislike rate in 30 years.

The enigma of Trump, an outlier in American history, must be solved by future historians. The "press urchins" (Bismarck), who work by the hour, can only report what is, and therefore all the more effectively serve their political leanings. On the right, one half of America acclaims its icon, who is finally breaking the cultural sovereignty of the well-intentioned. On the left, Trump is stylized as an evil clown, a "Terminator" in a tailored suit, overturning all tradition. In Europe, by contrast, the Orbans and the AfD appear like well-behaved convent students.

The preferred approach is satire, as the New Yorker magazine did on June 23. With a view to Trump's extortionate trade policy, the paper attributes a fictitious to-do list to the 47th president: "Get out of the solar system! Because America is the only planet that pays more than its fair share of the cost. We gave the world satellites and the moon flag. If the world wants us back, it has to offer a deal." Regarding China: "We'll buy the Great Wall and rebuild it in Mexico – and then sell it to China, but with a tariff markup."

"It's difficult not to write satire," the Roman poet Juvenal proclaimed. In the Trump case, Kurt Tucholsky is a better fit. "Does satire exaggerate?" he asked. It "must exaggerate. It inflates the truth so that it becomes clearer." Correct, sighs the contemporary who has to torment himself hourly with Trump's escapades. Compared to him, Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, and Friedrich Merz seem like characters in a provincial theater; to put it more respectfully: like politicians who constantly hedge their bets and wrap harsh truths in cotton wool with verbose words. But they are just as unlikely to be world stars as Putin and Xi. Trump, on the other hand, dominates the stage 24 hours a day.

What's The Donald up to? First, let's address the most precious commodity in the attention economy: Those who don't stand out don't exist in a world that has abandoned the old Gutenberg tradition. What counts is not the printed or spoken word, but what millennials and Gen Z see and hear on social networks like TikTok, Instagram, or X. In the 132 days since his second inauguration alone, Trump has posted 2,262 times on his Truth Social network—not only by himself, but with the help of an army of staff.

This alone illuminates, but still doesn't explain, the historically unique phenomenon of Trump. Something like this: Anyone who wants to dominate consciousness must "put their money where their mouth is," as a North German saying goes. Otherwise, the obsessive greed for more will die; the audience must be fed again and again. This is how Trump achieved the world record as an "influencer." On platform X, he has almost 100 million followers.

How does he manage what is now becoming a precedent in other government offices? He delivers new "butter" around the clock like a drug dealer. These wild leaps in foreign policy aren't bizarre, but rather a matter of principle. That's what the attention economy dictates. Here are a few examples. Donald Trump wanted to win Vladimir as a buddy, to shape Europe's fate together with Putin. Now he's suddenly threatening him with a slew of new sanctions if he doesn't end the war in Ukraine within twelve days – 100 or even 500 percent punitive tariffs!

Sometimes Trump reins in Israel, sometimes he joins Jerusalem in the air war against Iran. Recently, he pressured Netanyahu to "feed the kids in Gaza." Six months ago, he made a grotesque volta-face. Israel should "leave Gaza to the US after the war is over." A Mar-a-Lago on the Mediterranean, so to speak. Who can count the endless spasms in the tariff war? The EU was once supposed to be saddled with 30 percent punitive tariffs; now it's 15 percent, and Europe is keeping quiet for the time being. Trump originally wanted to saddle the Chinese with 145 percent; now he's content with 30 percent. (All data without guarantee, because Trump is already plotting new power games.)

From stage play to real business, where advantage and profit beckon. "Blackmail" is the key word that consistently defines Trump's actions. Disloyal, even despicable, when, in the name of "America First," it's about his friends of a generation – from Europe to the Far East. Cold-eyed realists don't talk about care and alliances here, but rather, like Lenin, about "who-whom?" – who is imposing their will on the other?

This is "un-American," at least after 1945, when the US abandoned isolationism and established an order that linked its own interests with the common good. For Trump, as in previous centuries, foreign and trade policy are synonymous with power politics. Whoever holds the upper hand sets the rules—not a subtlety, but rather an expression of the power imbalance.

Canada, Mexico, Japan, and Europe are perplexed, but at a disadvantage. They feel like cute pets suddenly banished to the basement. Especially the EU, which, though large and rich, suffers from an irreducible handicap. The ever-smiling Commission President von der Leyen has to harness fleas after every Trump attack, finding the lowest common denominator. Or to put it this way: 27 is less than one. Is it any wonder Trump has the upper hand?

But his friends needn't fret too much. Because Trump is playing his cards right at home, too. This isn't consolation, but rather routine – even where Trump does what's required. America's major universities, such as Harvard and Columbia, provide a prime example, where, after the Hamas murder spree in 2023, Jew-hatred raged under the guise of "anti-Zionism."

Trump is using the same weapon here as in the tariff war: money, lots of money – the withdrawal of millions upon millions of dollars in state funding. The goal in the university case is a noble one: the fight against anti-Semitism. In the "deal," Trump's favorite phrase, Harvard must now pay $500 million, Columbia $221 million. That he is a friend of the Jews may be true, but the matter fits into the familiar calculation of who-whom? In fact, according to the cynics, this is about the subjugation of universities under the thumb of the state. Down with woke, postcolonialism, and genderism, which is laudable, but it undermines the precious good of freedom of teaching and research.

Trump is doing some things right—for example, backing down on refusing to provide weapons to Ukraine. He's also no longer cosying up to Putin, which should reassure the Europeans. This same old trap lurks in this very comfort. What Trump says and does today is already worthless tomorrow. This is the law of the attention economy: Those who aren't in the spotlight fade and disappear. Then the "Trump Principle" applies. It goes something like this: "Let's see how far I can get if I attack every day to keep the others off balance." They've barely gotten back on their feet when the next blow comes.

Well-bred Europeans would speak of bad manners, even of Caesar's madness, which they know from their own history. A more sober approach is better, because they cannot vote out the 47th President of the United States. But they can reduce dependence through rearmament, something they have frowned upon for 30 years. In this respect, Trump is not a noble educator, but he is nevertheless a useful one. And his disgruntled friends can rely on the taco principle: "Trump always chickens out" – he will tuck his tail between his legs if he senses credible resistance.

In any case, the old Chinese curse applies for the next three and a half years: “May you live in interesting times!”

Josef Joffe , German publicist, has taught politics at Harvard, Stanford and Johns Hopkins universities.