Iranian nuclear program | Iran: Can the seemingly impossible be achieved?

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi confirmed on Tuesday that he had received the core elements of "a US deal" from his Omani counterpart, which has so far been kept secret. Aragchi stated that a "proportionate" response would be made in accordance with Iran's "national interests." US President Trump's spokeswoman told US media that the proposal was "detailed and acceptable." It was in Iran's interest to accept the American proposal .

But an agreement would still be a small miracle. Tehran insists on using nuclear power to generate electricity. US mediator Steven Witkoff and President Trump, along with numerous Republican US senators and the Israeli government, have made it clear that any form of Iranian uranium enrichment is unacceptable and will be stopped by military means if necessary.

In fact, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran is prohibited from possessing or producing nuclear weapons. Under the then Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran became one of the first signatories in 1968. The country established its own nuclear program in the 1960s. However, in recent decades, doubts about its civilian use have grown. This continues to cause difficulties in negotiations today.

Khamenei rejects US attacks

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, rejects all claims by the US government. "Why are you interfering in the question of whether Iran should enrich or not?" he asked the US in a speech broadcast on state television on Wednesday. Iran's independence means that the country "is not waiting for the green light from the US." The key to nuclear technology is uranium enrichment, Khamenei continued, "and our enemies want to prevent precisely that in order to undermine our independence and scientific potential."

The Trump administration now aims to resolve this irreconcilable conflict by establishing a regional uranium enrichment consortium. Several White House sources confirmed to the news platform Axios that Saudi Arabia and other countries could also participate in such a project, which would be overseen by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

According to the US plan, Iran would remain prohibited from enriching its own uranium, and existing uranium stockpiles would be restricted to a maximum enrichment level of three percent. According to Axios, the bunkers into which the Iranian nuclear program was relocated to protect itself from Israeli air strikes would also be closed.

If Iran complies with the agreement's obligations to the satisfaction of the U.S. government and the IAEA, U.S. mediator Witkoff would propose the lifting of Western sanctions against Iran. The proposal is largely similar to the agreement signed by President Obama in 2015, which Donald Trump withdrew three years later .

Tehran flexes its muscles

Witkoff describes the plan as a collection of preliminary ideas to be discussed in the upcoming sixth round of negotiations. However, government circles in Tehran already voiced quiet criticism on Tuesday of the unclear mechanism for easing sanctions.

Since the weekend, Tehran has continued to be under pressure: The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency warned that the amount of weapons-grade material in Iranian hands had increased by 50 percent in a short period of time.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry angrily rejected the IAEA report , claiming it was based on falsified Israeli government documents. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on the international community on Monday to act swiftly. The Israeli prime minister and his far-right coalition partners have been demanding for years the destruction of the underground bunker facilities where large parts of Iran's nuclear research and uranium processing are conducted.

Tehran appears confident of victory in the event of war. Over the weekend, dozens of long-range missiles were deployed in front of state television cameras. The display was part of a military exercise allegedly rehearsing an attack on the Israeli army's Nevatim barracks. The important base in the Negev Desert had already been hit by Iranian missiles last year.

Many in the Middle East now see the nuclear talks brokered by Oman and Italy as an opportunity to avert a regional war. At the last meeting of delegations in Rome, there was still optimism that an agreement with Iran would also end the suffering in Gaza.

German Middle East expert Carsten Wieland, who served as a UN advisor on Syria and frequently analyzes Iran's role in the region, is critical of the threat of war against Iran. "Strategically, it might be more effective for Iran at the moment to 'almost' have the nuclear bomb. A technical breakthrough in enrichment would automatically result in an Israeli attack and tougher sanctions. At the moment, Tehran is seeking a compromise with Riyadh and others in the region," says Wieland. He fears "that the constant threats of attack could drive Iran to build a nuclear bomb that the regime doesn't actually want."

Lebanese politician Marwan Abdallah, however, warns that a poor compromise with Tehran and the lifting of sanctions could lead to a return of Hezbollah. He advocates first integrating Iran's allies in Lebanon into the army and police. "A deal with the regime in Tehran that comes too quickly would revive the interrupted flow of money from Tehran," Abdallah says. "Hezbollah would use the ongoing Israeli occupation of several locations in Lebanon and Syria to reestablish itself as a legitimate resistance movement."