Climate: European economy would lose 4.7 points of GDP by 2030 in the event of extreme weather events

A catastrophic 2026 for Europe, with a series of heatwaves, droughts, and fires. An equally catastrophic 2027, but in its wet version, with floods and storms. This is the cataclysmic scenario that central banks around the world have attempted to establish, to analyze not the environmental consequences, but the economic impact. Their conclusions, highlighted in a blog post by the European Central Bank on Wednesday, July 9, are striking: the European Union would lose a total of 4.7 percentage points of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030, an impact similar to that of the great financial crisis of 2008.

The consequences of this catastrophic scenario would be primarily physical. Heat waves make it impossible to work in certain sectors, leading to a sharp drop in productivity; cooling power plants becomes difficult, reducing production. Floods and storms destroy or damage entire neighborhoods, sweeping away bridges and homes. Agriculture would be hit hard. Businesses would be severely weakened, causing bankruptcies, which would then contaminate the financial system.

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