Customs duties risk restarting French business failures

Will customs duties cause bankruptcies to rise again, even though their number appears to be stabilizing? This is one of the risks facing the French economy today. While a trade agreement between the European Union and the United States, announced on Sunday, July 27, was successfully concluded between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, avoiding prohibitive customs duties of 30%. But Trump's initial measures and the rate set by the agreement at 15% for goods exported across the Atlantic, which remains high overall, will likely have negative effects. "The trade war launched by the United States could lead to a number of bankruptcies higher than our forecasts for 2025 and 2026, estimated at 67,500 and 65,000 respectively," estimates Maxime Lemerle, head of insolvency research at Allianz Trade.

This risk is all the more significant given that it comes on top of the weak economic situation in France, the end of aid and repayments of loans guaranteed by the State, the resumption of summonses to late-paying companies by Urssaf and the tax authorities, which had been put on hold after the Covid-19 pandemic, and finally multiple geopolitical uncertainties.

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