Unemployment insurance reform: several hundred thousand people potentially affected by a reduction in the duration of compensation

If the government's proposed unemployment insurance reform were implemented, how many job seekers would suffer? This is one of the most pressing questions today. Announced on July 15, the executive's plan would, in particular, shorten the duration of benefit recipients' benefits. No indication has been provided at this stage of the number of people potentially affected, as the parameters are not yet set in stone. However, it is very possible that several hundred thousand people would suffer such harm, according to a study conducted in spring 2024 by Unédic—the association co-led by the social partners that manages the scheme.

The main measures advocated by the government consist of tightening the conditions for being eligible for benefits. In one of the scenarios often discussed in recent days – without having been finalized – the unemployed would be required to have worked for at least eight months during a so-called "affiliation reference" period of twenty months (instead of six months out of twenty-four months, as currently). These changes would result – among other things – in postponing the opening of rights for many individuals deprived of activity. They would also result in a reduction in the maximum number of days during which benefits would be paid (for example, from eighteen to fifteen months, in the frequently put forward option).

Similar provisions had already been considered for the first half of 2024 in the reform that Gabriel Attal, then Prime Minister, had introduced through a decree, ultimately buried following the dissolution of the National Assembly. At the time, Unédic services had conducted preparatory work to try to identify the implications of the text. The results of this research were summarized in a note, which was not published and which Le Monde was able to consult. They must be handled with discernment, particularly because the assumptions made at the time, for example on the evolution of unemployment benefits or prices, would not necessarily be the same today. Moreover, the application of parameters to certain groups (young people, seniors) may vary between the 2024 draft and the 2025 version.

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