Trump brings down tariffs on Europe: and thank goodness he was a friend of Meloni's.
The tycoon's trust
The renewed unity between the two sides of the Atlantic had given everyone hope after the Ukraine conference. But the trade war has begun. How will the EU respond?
Peace has broken out between Europe and the US over Ukraine , and it's a peace that benefits Giorgia Meloni entirely. It matters little whether and to what extent she deserves credit for this appeasement, and likely not at all. The fact remains that the West regrouped on Ukraine's support at the same time as the Rome Reconstruction Conference, and that she had taken on the task of mending the frayed relations between Washington and European capitals. Whether by merit or by luck, she emerges rewarded in a context that sees, for the first time since Trump 's inauguration, America openly siding with Kiev, to the point of participating, again for the first time, in the summit call between the leaders present in Rome, the Volenterosi working at a British military base, and the US.
Peace, however, is fragile, and on an even more sensitive front than Ukraine—the trade war—it seems far away. It goes without saying that a vicious trade war between the US and the EU over tariffs would inevitably also impact the US's attitude toward Putin's war. Even more so, given Trump's tendency to frequently shift his mood and opinions, relations between the two sides of the Atlantic remain at maximum risk. The framework agreement has its weight. For Europe, Trump's tariffs are too onerous , especially since they must be added to the consequences of the dollar's depreciation against the euro. Germany and Italy, however, insist on holding back their reaction. They are well aware that the framework agreement is less important than defining the details, namely the specific rates for various product sectors. Not that the outlook is any brighter from that point of view. For Italy, as for France, the food sector is essential, and it is one of the sectors on which Trump aims not to lower but to raise tariffs compared to the framework agreement. In the automotive sector, the most crucial for Germany but also for Italy, things are worse. The tycoon wants to maintain the exorbitant 25% tariff, and from his perspective, it's understandable: bringing the auto industry back to the US, or rather, to Detroit, is a political and even identity-based objective, not just an economic one.
Merz 's government and Giorgia Meloni 's government believe it's counterproductive to engage in a tug-of-war over the overall agreement, which would then effectively make it impossible to negotiate with any chance of success on the "details," which are not such at all: in short, the goods with the greatest impact on their economies. Given that they are the first and third largest countries in the Union and the two most industrialized countries in Europe, the influence of the coalition of Germany and Italy is far from negligible. However, Ursula von der Leyen , in this case, seems to be siding with the hardliners who, like Macron, want to respond blow for blow, or rather, tariff for tariff, and if necessary, even with a tax blow on US technology imports. Probably not right away. The suspension of counter-tariffs set by the EU expires next Monday, and a decision on whether or not to extend it has yet to be made. However, even in the face of an unsatisfactory "agreement in principle " open to revisions and amendments by August 1st, the deadline set by Trump for the tariffs to take effect , it is highly unlikely that Brussels will burn its bridges by avoiding the extension. There is room for negotiation, although less extensive than optimistic statements suggest. Much, however, will depend on the willingness of the parties involved to approach negotiations that are, in any case, not easy.
The Italian prime minister's role will therefore gain importance. Without exaggerating, it's true that she has a better relationship with Trump than other European leaders might say. Furthermore, she is one of the key stakeholders because, as the Bank of Italy clarified yesterday, the impact will be significant and, added Confindustria president Orsini, compensation is needed beyond the 10% threshold. Even though she can't negotiate, or at least not officially, the Italian prime minister will have to demonstrate that she is truly capable of making the tycoon more reasonable and, albeit unofficially, also extracting concessions from him that will prevent Italy from finding itself in a dead end. A difficult mission, but one with extremely high stakes: if she succeeds, Giorgia Meloni will become the rising star of Europe as a whole.
l'Unità
