Virtual Betting: The Rigged Algorithm

Online casinos today have a new feature: transformability. They can disguise themselves as sporting events. We're talking about the new frontier of online gambling, which, upon closer inspection, has a touch of dystopia, because underlying algorithms guide the "game." Virtual betting platforms are, in fact, designed with mechanisms similar to those of online slot machines, combining gamification , acceleration, and the illusion of control.

Open any bookmaker's website or app and you'll find a section called Virtual where you can watch a virtual soccer match unfold with fictional teams, or horse racing, greyhound racing, or motorsports with 3D animations. The graphics are highly realistic, and the interface makes you think you can apply some sort of strategy, as if it were a real sporting event. And so you place your bet: you pay, and after a few seconds, a very short video simulation starts. But be careful: the outcome is already decided by the system before the animation even starts.

In 2025, the global virtual betting market is estimated to be worth approximately $14.88 billion. It is expected to reach $47.43 billion by 2032, with an annual growth rate of 18% between 2025 and 2032. Europe is a very profitable market, and virtual betting has also seen significant growth in Italy, especially during and after the pandemic; in fact, we are one of the largest European markets. The most popular virtual game in Italy is football, which accounts for approximately 60% of the market, while horse and greyhound racing accounts for approximately 35% of revenues.

Virtual betting is a type of fixed-odds bet on computer-simulated sporting events, such as soccer matches, horse or dog racing, tennis, motorcycle or car races. These fictional sporting events are streamed via animations or pre-recorded videos, much like a live video game. Since they aren't connected to real competitions, they're generated by software that uses complex algorithms to simulate the progress and outcome of the races. These virtual events have a very short duration, usually between 90 and 120 seconds, and continue uninterrupted throughout the day and night. That's why we call them virtual bets: the odds are assigned by the system based on simulated statistical parameters and don't reflect real-world event data. The only thing they have in common with "traditional" sports betting is the method: single or multiple bets can be placed. And, of course, they're regulated by the Customs and Monopolies Agency (ADM), which certifies the software.

As soon as the bet is placed, the system launches an RNG (Random Number Generator) algorithm that works based on the probabilities configured by the bookmaker, the visible odds (the higher they are, the lower the chances), and the profit margin the platform (the house) must maintain. The system then extracts the match outcome. And it's all pure show.

Each simulated event (such as a horse winning or the result of a goal) is unbalanced by the RNG on a probabilistic basis, inserting a margin in favor of the operator (which is called the house edge)

Although the graphical interface might suggest a video game, virtual betting has no gaming aspect whatsoever. An example? While in FIFA or Football Manager, the user plays and therefore decides the gaming actions, the bettor controls nothing, because everything is predetermined by the algorithm, i.e., the machine. Even if everything is programmed to make you believe otherwise. These are rapid and continuous simulations, designed to mimic the experience of real betting. The only real element is money.

Virtual betting offers bookmakers higher profit margins than betting on real-world sports events. The house edge is the percentage guaranteed to the bookmaker on each bet. It's equivalent to the "price" paid by the user to play.

While the house edge in casino games varies between 1% and 5%, and in sports betting between 3% and 30%, depending on the operator and the type of odds, in virtual betting it typically ranges between 10% and 25%. Bookmakers like this guaranteed result from the algorithm, because it is calibrated to guarantee the house a stable profit, without the uncertainty of real sports. The edge is often higher than in real sports betting, since the operator completely controls the odds, odds, and speed of the game.

Virtual bets are particularly addictive, designed to keep users glued to the game and therefore carry a high risk of pathological addiction. Everything happens instantly, with no pauses and no sports day to wait for. Speed is a highly addictive element in all gambling, even in this case: a loss can be immediately re-bet, perhaps thinking, "It'll go better this time," or "I have a feeling it'll be my lucky bet." After a win, however, the desire to continue is strong, because, "Now I'm going to double my money! "

Psychologists tell us that this is the intermittent conditioning mechanism also present in slot machine players and is among the most powerful triggers of compulsive behavior. It's called the illusion of control: you believe you can manage the "game" and steer it in your favor, but in reality you're living in a compulsive loop of pseudo-gambling.

Finally, the gambling mode includes multiple micro-bets, i.e. odds for each type of event (who scores, how long a goal will last, who will take a corner, etc.) which fragment the actions within the same event, thus multiplying compulsive gambling.

SOURCES:

Global Betting Data : https://www.coherentmarketinsights.com/industry-reports/virtual-sports-betting-market

European Market: https://www.skyquestt.com/report/virtual-sports-betting-market Italian Market : https://sbcnews.co.uk/europe/2021/02/17/an-expanding-alternative-the-rise-of-virtual-sports-in-italy-and-across-the-world/

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