Banking Risk as a Bildungsroman. Threads for Orientation

Apart from Bettina Orlopp, CEO of Commerzbank, who is trying to block Andrea Orcel's ascent to the third largest German bank, the protagonists of the banking game are all men . High-level profiles with important careers behind them - "successful track record" as they say in finance. Finding yourself in the shoes of predators or prey on the market is the ideal situation to bring out typical male characteristics: the spirit of survival, on the one hand, the spirit of conquest, on the other. The CEO of the largest Italian bank, Carlo Messina, who is currently keeping himself on the sidelines, has frozen everyone by saying that the scene is "crowded" . Too many protagonists, but also a lot of market rumors contribute, in fact, to creating a certain chaos to the point that it is no longer possible to distinguish reality from the most vague hypotheses. For example, some have even hypothesized a sort of Armageddon, a final weapon: Unicredit's takeover bid for Generali . But is it really credible that Orcel would launch a 60 billion operation on the Trieste-based company? Good God, in terms of decision-making and initiative, the CEO of Unicredit presents himself as the “alpha male” of European bankers: I attack various fronts, I force the others to follow me and then I decide the best option, only to then have to deal – on the Banco Bpm dossier – with the Minister of the Treasury, Giancarlo Giorgetti, and the government’s cabinet chief, Gaetano Caputi. Other men, from the institutions, but no less capable of imposing their own line.

Orcel, strong in the results achieved at the helm of Unicredit, including a large capital reserve that threatens to invest in "other markets" if things in Italy do not unblock, is trying to chip away at the wall erected by the Meloni government to protect the Milanese bank with the golden power that was defined by Senator Matteo Renzi as "an absolute scandal" while former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, who was also in favor of introducing the discipline during the Covid period, now says that the government must "clarify". In any case, the tireless CEO of Unicredit, according to rumors, is also working on the Mediobanca front, which in recent days has seen about 10 percent of its capital change hands on the stock exchange. Is he involved?

The rumors are fueled by the fact that Orcel was spotted in Milan in the company of Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone in recent days : it could be that something is brewing. But, as some expert analysts point out, a hypothesis of a public offer by Unicredit on Generali could be entertained by Orcel only if there was the mathematical certainty of being able to count on the European “discount” of the Danish Compromise. In short, these are random hypotheses, while it is plausible that the change of hands of such a large package of Mediobanca shares can be explained by the major maneuvers in view of the meeting on June 16, in which it will be clear whether the shareholders are more inclined to adhere to the offer by Montepaschi to create a new banking group among “different” or if they want a savings hub among “similar” ones, i.e. with Banca Generali .

Only the expert Alberto Nagel (“I know something about mergers and acquisitions,” he said) can see the alternative between the two options, because, if it were up to rival Luigi Lovaglio, who has revealed an unsuspected conqueror side, MPS would take a bite out of Mediobanca and Banca Generali together. But that’s the way the Italian bankers’ game of risk is now, it goes on also through force of muscle tests in communication while there are three certainties.

One is Unicredit's takeover bid for Banco Bpm, officially launched on April 28. It will close at the end of June and until then Orcel will try to get it through, thus declining the invitation of Giuseppe Castagna and Massimo Tononi, respectively CEO and president of the Milanese bank, to clarify things immediately. Castagna and Tononi, who would never have wanted to get into this game if not to buy the Anima company, have shown that they know how to defend themselves tooth and nail and have tried, even a little naively, to press Orcel (decide: do you withdraw or continue?), who, however, is doing exactly the opposite.

The second fixed point is that Mediobanca will no longer be the same because, whatever decision the shareholders will make, its future is destined to change compared to the current configuration that allows it to control the governance of Generali.

The third certainty is that the Trieste company has two large partners, Caltagirone and Delfin, who will continue to push for a renewal, being able to count on the help of Orcel , even if he has just reiterated that the investment in Leone is of a "financial" nature.

Overseeing all this great Italian-style reorganization is a woman, the president of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, Claudia Buch . She is also German, like Orlopp.

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