Italian wheat in crisis due to imports and low prices

Italian wheat is currently at a crucial crossroads. Production estimates for 2025 paint a mixed picture: while there is an improvement compared to the disastrous 2024, marked by extreme drought, yields remain far from the historical average and are threatened by increasingly unfavorable economic and climatic conditions. Making the situation even more precarious are falling prices and an invasion of foreign wheat, which are undermining the sustainability of Italian agricultural enterprises.

Wheat production is growing but still below average in Italy.

According to the latest estimates released by Coldiretti and the Consorzi Agrari d'Italia (CAI), durum wheat production for pasta in Italy will reach around 3.7 million tons in 2025, while soft wheat production is expected to be below 2.5 million tons. Although the harvest shows a rebound compared to 2024—a year in which drought , especially in the South, caused a dramatic production collapse—the overall quantity remains below the average levels of previous years.

The most telling data comes from the province of Foggia , long known as the "granary of Italy," which alone accounts for approximately 20% of Italy's durum wheat production . Here, heat and lack of water have led to a decline in yields , demonstrating how the climate is becoming a structurally limiting factor.

Even in Sicily , Molise , and Basilicata , despite often good or excellent quality, production is showing signs of suffering. Further north, in regions like Emilia-Romagna and Veneto , the problem isn't so much drought as waterlogging, which, combined with adverse weather conditions including extreme heat and hail , has led to drops of between 15% and 20% for both types of wheat.

Prices plummet and farmers under pressure

While the climate presents an increasingly unpredictable challenge, the prices paid to farmers are a nightmare waiting to happen. According to ISMEA data analyzed by Coldiretti, durum wheat prices dropped 13% in the last week of June compared to the same period in 2024. This means that, despite rising production costs (for fuel, fertilizer, seeds, insurance, and labor), farmers are being paid increasingly meager compensation.

The greatest impact is the pressure of imports, which have been destabilizing the domestic market for years. Nearly 800,000 tons of durum wheat have arrived from Canada alone in the current marketing year, over 104% more than last year. This phenomenon is not new, but it is exacerbated precisely around the time of Italian threshing, further depressing domestic wheat prices.

It should not be forgotten that much of the imported wheat, although legal, does not meet the same production and environmental standards as that grown in Italy. In Canada, for example, wheat is treated pre-harvest with glyphosate , a herbicide banned in Europe due to its potential health and environmental effects. This also raises ethical and transparency issues: how much do consumers really know about what goes into the wheat products they purchase?

What is at risk?

The Italian production system, based on quality, traceability, and sustainability, therefore risks being penalized by a market logic that favors the lowest price at the expense of quality and safety. This paradox is made even more evident by the fact that Italy is the world's leading pasta producer, yet it is increasingly struggling to guarantee a fully national supply chain, having to compensate for declining domestic production with often less controlled imports.

This shortsighted strategy jeopardizes an agricultural sector that represents thousands of businesses, entire local economies, and a fundamental part of our agri-food identity. Dependence on imports—and the accompanying international fluctuations—makes the system vulnerable , and Italian farms increasingly exposed to dynamics beyond their control.

In this critical context, one of the most effective tools for protecting farmers' incomes and the country's food sovereignty is supply chain contracts . Coldiretti and the Italian Agricultural Consortiums consider them a true lifeline, as they allow a fixed purchase price to be established from the beginning of the campaign , often higher than the market value. In some cases, the agreed price has been up to 25% higher, especially for high-quality niche products such as certain types of durum wheat.

These contracts, based on planning, mutual respect, and transparency, would protect and enhance Italian quality , while also ensuring processing companies (pasta factories, bakeries, mills) receive traceable raw materials that comply with safety standards . The success of this formula demonstrates that it is possible to reconcile economic and production needs with sustainability and quality.

However, to make the most of this tool, it is essential that farmers take action early, starting in the pre-sowing phase, by contacting the relevant consortia . The risk is that the expected volumes will be sold out quickly, leaving those who didn't sign up early enough out.