The game of risk tightens: Mediobanca and Mps study the latest moves. Surprises? Difficult

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First the move by Banca Generali , then the complaints to the prosecutor's office, now the extra dividends. Mediobanca 's management is trying everything to defend itself from the takeover by Montepaschi , which on Thursday evening approved the capital increase of up to 13.2 billion necessary to launch the public exchange offer in mid-July. Barring any judicial developments or investigations by the European Commission, what is emerging is a fight to the last penny for the conquest of Piazzetta Cuccia. Nothing strange: if it is true that the market must decide - something that even government officials are hoping for to avoid being accused of interfering in the banking game - then it means that the economic aspect becomes decisive . This is usually how it works when the ball is in the shareholders' court.

On this ground, the CEO of Mediobanca, Alberto Nagel , is trying to play one last card: he has updated the industrial plan to 2028, foreseeing the distribution of 4.9 billion in coupons, of which 4.5 billion in cash. This means that 100 percent of the profits produced in the next three years will end up in the pockets of the shareholders . This hypothesis is based on the assumption of a Mediobanca, as they say, "stand alone" and without Banca Generali. If it were possible to create an all-Italian wealth management hub with Banca Generali, a plan, however, that would have been rejected by the Mediobanca meeting of June 16 if it had been held, then the economic objectives could be even more ambitious.

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How will the Sienese bank respond? For now, Lovaglio does not seem worried about the extra money that Nagel has put on the table and is continuing on his way in the belief that the project for the creation of the third largest bank in the country is the real strong point of his proposal. In reality, behind the scenes, calculations are already being made on what the increase in the price offered to Mediobanca shareholders could be, which at the current exchange levels continues to present a discount, although not as wide as a few months ago .

Mps currently has a Cet1, which is the index that measures the capital strength of a bank, equal to 19.6 percent, among the highest in Europe. It therefore has the financial capacity to put a premium on the table to try to convince undecided shareholders given that the front already inclined to join the takeover bid exceeds 40 percent. And, however, money also counts for supporters of the Siena aggregation project, especially if one considers that the majority of Mediobanca shareholders manage resources of other investors (funds) or the pensions of members (the Funds) or are listed companies that also answer to third parties. Although the support for Siena is homogeneous and growing, Nagel's move to offer more dividends and at the same time ask Consob to have MPS publish updated 2028 performance targets with a membership threshold lower than 50 percent (a difficult scenario, but one that cannot be ruled out) will offer Siena new elements to think about .

Barring any surprises, however, the operation should be able to take its course in terms of the market, as happened when Intesa Sanpaolo closed the game on Ubi Banca with a cash raise or as Banca Ifis has just done to bring the offer on Illimity Bank to fruition (yesterday Corrado Passera also announced that he will deliver his shares). These experiences, however, suggest that if there is an economic raise by MPS, it will happen in the last days of the offer that should end in early August . Therefore, the next few weeks will finally give a twist to this great banking novel in which two variables, so to speak, are being inserted that are external. The first is the position of Banca Mediolanum and the Doris family in Piazzetta Cuccia, which, according to rumors, could be lightened to avoid being involved in a financial war whose final objective is the control of Generali. For Antonio Tajani, who within the government is the one who is most inclined to leave room for the market, it would be a great relief. The second variable is the quarrel between the Del Vecchio heirs precisely over the financial and banking holdings of Delfin, the family safe led by Francesco Milleri, which is a partner in both Mps and Mediobanca . But here the times are expected to be longer and whether the outcome of this story of inheritance will also have an influence on the banking structures will only be seen later.

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