Budget: Giorgetti will reveal his cards only after mid-October. The latest speculation on tax cuts, the scrapping of loans, pensions, and...

At least three weeks. So, it will be between mid-October and the end of next month, and then the issues will come home to roost. This is the time frame that Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti , who even last Sunday in Pontida did not make any promises before the League supporters gathered on the 'sacred Po Valley soil,' has asked Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni , the two Deputy Prime Ministers— Antonio Tajani and Matteo Salvini —and all members of the government and majority in Parliament to complete an in-depth review of public finances and determine how many resources are actually available for the Budget Law.

Fitch 's upgrade of Italy's rating to BBB+ is obviously good news, but it will impact the cost of public debt in the medium to long term, not immediately in the coming months. As is well known, Forza Italia's priority is cutting middle-class taxes, a demand also supported by the Brothers of Italy party, strongly supported by Deputy Minister of Economy Maurizio Leo . This involves reducing the personal income tax rate from 35% to 33% for incomes up to €60,000 gross per year (which would lead to a maximum annual savings for workers of €1,440).

The League, on the other hand, insists on the new scrapping of tax bills to " give breathing space to the economy, small businesses, and self-employed workers ." Then there's the stumbling block of a possible new contribution from the banking sector, loudly demanded by Salvini, who has openly spoken of extra profits but has met with a firm refusal from Tajani. Finally, we shouldn't forget the pension issue, with the proposal, again from the League and specifically from Undersecretary of Labor Claudio Durigon , to allow early retirement at age 64, using all of one's severance pay.

All these issues need to be resolved and reconciled, however, as the Minister of Economy and Finance explained at the recent UDC party, with the increase in military spending imposed by the agreement with Donald Trump and NATO, as well as by pressure from Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, given the growing tensions with Russia and the constant incursions of Moscow's jets and drones into the skies of Atlantic Alliance countries.

The impression is that Giorgetti will be extremely cautious so as not to jeopardize the stability of the accounts and avoid any problems with Brussels . The European Union is now targeting France, also a victim of strong political instability, and therefore it is best to maintain good relations with the Commission. Ultimately, around €4 billion could be available for new fiscal measures .

So a reduction for the middle class that could stop at 50 or at most 55 thousand euros gross per year (it is difficult to reach 60 thousand euros) with a mini-scrappage of tax bills, a small intervention on pensions both to bring forward retirement and by raising the minimum (a Forza Italia and historic battle of Silvio Berlusconi) and little else.

Indeed, other bonuses and tax deductions for very high incomes, above €100,000 per year, will likely be eliminated. The banks will be a political battle, but Prime Minister Meloni has no desire to directly challenge the credit industry (which would then pass the new taxes on to businesses and account holders), so, as was the case last year, an agreement will be sought with the Italian Banking Association (ABI), without imposing new taxes. In short, when the leaves fall from the trees, after mid-October, we'll finally know more or less what the budget will contain, because then Giorgetti will have to show his cards.

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