Maciej Miłosz: The conclusion from the peace talks is obvious: we must arm ourselves

Peace? A ceasefire? A territorial exchange? When it comes to peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, despite the political revival of recent days, there are still many unknowns. And specifics are lacking. It's likely that this conflict is still a long way off. A very long way off.

What we do know for sure is that Russia isn't abandoning its aggressive policy and that it currently has over 600,000 troops in Ukraine, a number that has been growing, not shrinking, in the last six months. And while there are persistent claims that the Russian economy is in poor shape and will collapse any moment now, they don't change the fact that for over three years, the country has been spending enormous amounts of money every year to painstakingly shift the front line westward. Unfortunately, recently, at an increasingly rapid pace.

Warranties don't guarantee much

We also know that the West is currently unable to quickly—that is, within a few months—deploy tens of thousands of troops who could truly ensure peace. Politically, no one is particularly eager to do so. And even if it were, only the United States could effectively act quickly operationally, and even then only to a limited extent.

Based on the experience of the Minsk Agreements, it's also important to remember that, to be effective, peace guarantees would have to be somewhat automatic and defined much more strictly than Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. For example, if Russia moves troops beyond Line A, then the guarantors' aircraft would automatically strike those troops. No one would agree to such a solution today.

A strong army guarantees deterrence

For Poland, the conclusion from these talks should be obvious. And it doesn't in any way concern who is more at fault for our absence from the negotiating table: the Prime Minister or the President. At a time when our security situation has radically deteriorated and shows no signs of improving anytime soon, we must build our own deterrence capabilities. And we must do so independently. This means investing wisely in our Armed Forces, but also in the capabilities of our defense industry, which constitutes a key resource for the military.

We must constantly remember that although, unlike Ukraine, we are in NATO and Article 5, which states "one for all, all for one," covers us, Article 3 precedes it. And there, it clearly states that member states will "develop their individual and collective capacity to repel armed attack." To expect our allies to fulfill the provisions of this treaty, let's not forget that every sword has two ends, and we first need to do our own homework.