Record-breaking cold winter after scorching summer. A new ice age in Europe?

The problem is that this scenario is gradually gaining credibility, and a paper published in June in the journal Geophysical Research Letters features a simulation of the effects of an AMOC "collapse." It can be described as "spine-chilling."

Arctic Frosts in Northern Europe? Experts: It's Real

"If the AMOC were to collapse, we would have to prepare for significantly colder winters. Winter extremes would be even more pronounced in some regions: temperatures could drop to -50 degrees Celsius in Scandinavia," says Dr. Rene van Westen, an oceanographer at Utrecht University. He believes Europe may be the only continent where climate change will ultimately go the other way: towards rapid cooling. The downward temperature correction would range from 10 to 30 degrees Celsius.

This means, among other things, that Great Britain may potentially experience frosts and ground frosts for almost half of the year (and let us recall that in recent years the islanders enjoyed exceptionally sunny springs, in May they even went to the beaches in search of their first tan), and in London one in ten winters will bring 20-degree frosts, previously known rather from Eastern Europe.

Oslo, on the other hand, could experience temperatures as low as -48 degrees Celsius, not to mention the Norwegian interior. "And everything starts to fall apart there at -40," noted the Utrecht researcher. In Amsterdam and Brussels, winter extremes would be similar to those in London, with Paris in a slightly better situation (-18 degrees Celsius). In Poland, winter averages would likely hover around -10 to -15 degrees Celsius, but in the mountainous regions to the south, it would be several degrees colder. A "collapse" of the AMOC would also impact the frequency and abundance of rainfall in the Amazon.

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Ocean currents are an area of knowledge in which we navigate a rather uncertain path. Oceanologists debate the extent to which the AMOC's decline described above has already begun, and the extent to which it remains to be seen. Some argue that Atlantic currents have been slowing since the middle of the last century, while others argue that this mechanism is still barely perceptible today.