The Future is in Circles: Micromobility in 2030

As Nextbike, we are not afraid to cross borders and we like a visionary approach to topics. When we proposed bike-sharing to cities in 2010-2011, we were looked at as naive idealists. A few years later, we already had a dozen or so systems throughout Poland and millions of rentals per year. When we started promoting visions of a bike system integrated with public transport less than a decade ago, we were listened to with interest, but still as futurists. Today, we already have the Metrorower Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolii, which is the first in Poland to operate within the metropolitan transport tariff, and will soon be integrated with regional trains. At Nextbike, we like to look into the future, which is why today we would like to present our four key predictions regarding the future of micromobility in cities and regions of Europe.

1. Cities will take full control of infrastructure

Modern European cities are flooded with micromobility vehicles, with each company offering its own bikes or scooters, which often block sidewalks, crosswalks, and can be a pain to navigate. It’s like dealing with the chaos of streaming—five different apps, different parking rules, different prices. By 2030, we expect most European cities to take control of their micromobility infrastructure.

Mobility hubs, charging points and designated parking spaces in the urban space will become an integral part of the urban landscape. This is the path taken by our Warsaw, where bicycle stations are also intended for scooters or private bicycles. Operators will no longer decide where to leave their vehicles - the rules will be established by the administration. Cities will start to manage the space in which bicycles and scooters move, just as they already do with bus stops or charging stations for electric vehicles.

2. Micromobility fully integrated with public transport

In many cities, cycling is still treated as an addition, not an integral part of the transport system. There is no coherent, long-term strategy, and infrastructure is often created in a haphazard manner. In Polish cities that really support cyclists – such as Warsaw, Poznań, Wrocław or Gdańsk – there is a noticeable increase in their number on the roads. However, in order for cities to develop sustainable transport, they must treat bicycles (and scooters) with the same seriousness as public transport. This situation will change by 2030.

We expect dynamic development of micromobility centers at public transport stations – after getting off the train or bus, a bike or scooter will be available in convenient places. The next step will be technological and application evolution. Instead of using different applications for different means of transport, we will have one platform that will connect bikes, scooters, buses and trains, and all based on subscription models – like Netflix, but for transport. The Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis is already following this path in Poland. In Western EU countries, cities such as Paris and Barcelona are also starting to integrate micromobility with the public transport system – by 2030, other metropolises will follow their example. By supplementing this with an intelligent traffic control system, micromobility users and pedestrians will move faster and safer. Such transport will become even more competitive with the private car.

It is worth noting that the development of modern transport will be crucial for the functioning of smart cities. According to research by the research company Facts & Factors, the global smart city market will grow at a rate of 20 percent per year and will reach a value of $297.7 billion by the end of 2026.

3. Funds for transport and climate

Sustainability is becoming a key goal for cities and companies that have commitments to achieve zero emissions. Micromobility, as an element of sustainable, low-emission transport, will be increasingly supported by EU and national funds. We expect that by 2030, a significant part of the financing of the micromobility sector will be funds supporting the climate and energy transformation.

One of the key financial instruments in the years 2026-2032 will be the Social Climate Fund (SCF). This is an EU fund that offers over 86 billion euros - of which Poland can be the largest beneficiary and obtain 17 percent of the funds - for a just energy and transport transformation. Let us remember that both of these issues interpenetrate. Transport is responsible for a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU, and its share is still growing. An effective transformation towards more sustainable, low-emission cities requires us to invest in both new energy sources and the elimination of combustion vehicles from urban spaces in favor of well-connected transport systems combining bicycles, public transport and rail.

Given that environmental issues and positive impact on local communities are becoming more important for companies every year, corporate systems financed by private companies will become more important. Brands will support shared bike systems, as Santander did with the "Boris Bikes" bikes in London. This is important because companies that do not invest in sustainable development will have difficulty obtaining funds.

4. Major consolidations on the market

The micromobility industry has been a turf of constant competition, with younger companies growing rapidly and then either going under or merging with larger players. The process of consolidation has already begun, with companies like Bird and Lime acquiring competitors, and Tier and Dott forming an alliance.

By 2030, the micromobility market will be dominated by a few large companies that will take over smaller operators. These changes will have a major impact on the quality of services, price and availability of vehicles. Standardized batteries, interchangeable parts and common charging systems will reduce costs and make it easier for users to use different services.

Micromobility in 2030 will ultimately be even more organized, integrated, and sustainable. These changes will make cities cleaner, less congested, and getting around them easier and more accessible. The micromobility industry in 2030 will be not only a convenient but also an ecological solution for millions of city dwellers.

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