Academician Abel Aganbegyan: “We have created a vicious socio-economic system”

Approximately the same effect was seen during the last SPIEF, where the Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes Andrei Makarov stated at a Sberbank breakfast that “in Russia there are no honest courts, investment climate or functioning institutions, and nationalization threatens property rights.” At the same time, the deputy expressed hope that he would manage to live until the next breakfast, hinting that the authorities would not recognize him as a carbonari or a foreign agent shaking the foundations of the political system.

Academician Abel Aganbegyan never hid what he said at the IPN RAS conference in June 2025. Only an illiterate person does not know that Russia has not had enough investment in development during the entire period of new capitalism. It’s just that in recent years it has been somehow inconvenient and unacceptable to remind people of this. The victorious and optimistic assurances of ministers are a different matter. Listen to anyone and it seems that a bright future will arrive tomorrow morning. But years and decades pass and it turns out (if we believe Academician Aganbegyan) that something is always missing for a breakthrough.

Over the 34 years of the new Russia's existence, its GDP, as the academician said, has grown by only 37% according to Rosstat data - 1 percent per year. The US has grown twofold during this time, post-socialist countries - 2.5 times, developing countries - from 3 to 6 times, India - 8.6 times, China - 13 times.

There has been a significant deterioration in all key international indicators. Life expectancy has returned to the 1964 level of around 70 years.

The innovation sector is in a critical situation. Of the 1,685 unicorn companies (startups valued at over a billion dollars) globally, not a single one is registered in Russia. Of the 2,500 large private innovation companies investing over 35 million euros in R&D, only three are present in Russia.

The level of robotization also lags significantly behind world leaders. For every 10,000 workers in Russia, there are only 19 robots, while in South Korea this figure is 1,014, and in other developed countries - from 200 to 600.

The number of supercomputers in Russia is extremely small - only 7, while in China and the USA there are 150 each.

In 2021, Russia ranked 45th in the global innovation ranking, which is assessed by 80 indicators, including inventions, patents, education level and R&D spending. The country has now dropped to 59th place.

Innovative companies are hampered by a lack of venture capital, their main source of funding. Venture capital investment has fallen from $3.4 billion in 2021 to just $270 million today, not enough to create even one unicorn.

Russia's share in the global market for technological goods and services is 1.3%, and in exports - 0.3%. For comparison, the share of the United States is 25% by volume and 39% by exports. Developed countries are characterized by a high level of investment in the knowledge economy - 30% in Europe and 40% in the United States.

An analysis of the distribution of investments in fixed capital shows that economic growth is impossible if the share of investments in the knowledge economy is less than 25%. In Russia, this figure is about 18%.

The experience of countries such as China, South Korea and Japan shows that economic recovery begins with a sharp increase in investment, growing by 10-15% per year.

The most difficult task is to stimulate sustainable economic growth. To do this, it is necessary to give the economy a boost, which is impossible with an investment level of 5-7%.

Two thirds of Russian enterprises are technologically obsolete. A quarter of all machine tools are operating beyond their depreciation period, which in Russia is one of the longest in the world.

Labor productivity in Russia is 4 times lower than in developed countries. In terms of raw material and electricity consumption per unit of output, Russia lags behind by 2-3 times.

To resume socio-economic growth, a certain share of investment in fixed capital and human capital in the gross product is required. If investment is below this critical level, then sustainable annual growth of 3-4% is impossible.

"The socio-economic system that has developed in Russia is state-oligarchic capitalism with an unfinished market and a backward social model, without a developed capital market capable of providing large investment loans, including for education. A radical transformation of this system is necessary, a reform of property, the financial system and the banking sector, the restoration of "long" money and the creation of a full-fledged exchange. A change in the management system is also required, a transition to strategic five-year planning, strict at the initial stage and more flexible as the market develops. The share of the oligarchy in Russia is one of the highest in the world: 650 billion dollars are concentrated in the hands of 120 oligarchs," Abel Aganbegyan summed up.