Dollar — ₽86. Experts gave advice to Russians on how to take advantage of the strong ruble

On Tuesday, February 25, the dollar exchange rate calculated through the yuan fell to 85.3 rubles, on Forex - to 86.3. This is the most significant drop since August 2024. The ruble exchange rate has been strengthening significantly for the second month.

A week before today's, albeit temporary, triumph of the ruble, leading analyst of FC Finam Alexander Potavin warned that the dollar could "fly away" to the 87 ruble mark and below.

The reason is US President Trump's attempts to establish peace talks that will end the Ukrainian conflict.

"This geopolitical factor is currently having a very noticeable impact on the ruble exchange rate. Since foreign currency has been regarded as a protective asset in the last three years, a decrease in geopolitical tensions could lead to a strengthening of the ruble on expectations of a gradual lifting of at least some of the external sanctions, which could improve the situation with Russia's foreign trade. On the wave of euphoria over the end of the three-year military conflict, the dollar exchange rate could fall to 87 rubles," Potavin warned.

But, the expert adds, there is still no clarity about the final results of the negotiations and what we are now seeing is just an emotional reaction.

Expectations of peace talks do not cancel the issue of filling the Russian treasury. The average annual dollar to ruble exchange rate, on the basis of which the budget was drawn up, is envisaged at the level of 96.5 rubles per dollar . It is at this rate that the Russian Federation plans to receive about 11 trillion rubles in oil and gas revenues.

The current rate is already putting the Russian Cabinet of Ministers under pressure. The Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov directly stated the day before that the current ruble rate is stronger than the balance that formed the basis of the department's forecast when drafting the state budget.

In February, we recall, the "American" fell in price first to 93 rubles, and then completely collapsed. Analysts do not expect any sharp reversals on the currency market until the end of the month.

And for now they are giving the following forecast: the dollar will hover around the 86.5-89 ruble per dollar mark, the euro – 91-94 ruble.

"Novye Izvestia" reported that there are still no fundamental reasons for the strengthening of the Russian currency. And the deserved "victory" of the ruble in this rally could only be celebrated if everything was in order with Russia's trade and payment balances. And analysts call the balance of foreign trade weak .

HSE professor Evgeny Kogan claims that the ruble remains overvalued, and assesses it as follows:

— Weak balance of payments. In January, exports of goods decreased by 1.3% (year-on-year), while imports grew by 13.6%. As a result, the current account was in deficit by $0.7 billion. The norm for our country is a surplus, the average monthly value in 2024 is $4.5 billion.

— There are no drivers of export growth. Russian oil has fallen in price from the January highs of $77 to $68 per barrel. Discounts on it have only widened, and the effect of the January sanctions, which no one has cancelled, is also awaiting us.

— High inflation in rubles. In January, prices in the US rose by 0.44%, in Russia — by 0.85%, which weakens the purchasing power of the ruble.

Anton Prokudin, chief macroeconomist of Ingosstrakh-Investments Management Company, adds:

"The dollar is getting cheaper in the absence of any positive developments on the raw materials markets, and the statistics of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation showed a currency deficit in Russia even at the rate of 100 rubles per dollar. The return to the dollar at 100 rubles may be about as fast as the flight from 100 to 80. Since the equilibrium remained above 100 rubles."

Head of the Gaidar Institute's Monetary Policy Laboratory Evgeny Goryunov warns that the ruble will weaken in the long term. All factors, including the main one - the growth of the money supply, speak in favor of this.

Boris Kopeikin, chief economist at the P. A. Stolypin Institute for Growth Economics, also told NI that increased volatility in the exchange rate can be expected in the coming weeks and months.

"And although further strengthening of the ruble against the backdrop of geopolitical news cannot be completely ruled out, a certain weakening of the national currency seems more likely. For now, unfriendly countries continue to tighten sanctions, which creates certain, albeit surmountable, difficulties for exporters. And the need for imports remains high. At the same time, the average exchange rate for the year may well remain within the budget projections - that is, in the region of 95-100 rubles per dollar," the expert says.

"The dollar exchange rate should be closer to 100 rubles, taking into account the situation with the Russian Federation's trade balance and current operations. In such a situation, buying the dollar at a rate below 90 rubles this year may show a good return. The rapid growth of the free mass of rubles printed over the past three years should eventually transform into a weaker ruble exchange rate, since at the same time we do not see positive dynamics in the structure of the Russian Federation's trade balance. The restoration of the dollar exchange rate in the region of 105-107 rubles by the end of this year is a completely realistic scenario," Potavin is confident.

Economists, no matter what happens with the exchange rate, advise ordinary citizens to keep their savings, if any, in foreign currency. And better yet, in a freely convertible one. For now, this is the dollar and the euro.

In 2024, individuals became net buyers of foreign currency in the amount of 679.4 billion rubles. Shortly before the dollar fell — in December 2024 and January 2025 — Russians sold dollars for 28.7 billion and 32.4 billion rubles, respectively.

Novye Izvestia asked experts what benefits ordinary citizens can derive from the current situation, whether it is worth booking summer tours at a low exchange rate, and whether it is time to update gadgets and replenish their foreign currency savings.

Financial markets expert Nikolai Solabuto says:

— The dollar is falling for now. Many are trying to catch the bottom now. But the question is — why? To buy a travel package, to buy goods and services abroad. I agree. But are your purchases investments? Or are they emotions? From an investment point of view, there are no attractive assets denominated in US dollars. The most profitable assets are denominated in rubles for now.

Boris Kopeikin, chief economist at the P. A. Stolypin Institute for Growth Economics, adds: everyone decides for themselves what and when to buy or not. “You just have to remember about the risks and costs. Exchange rates sometimes behave unexpectedly, and when exchanging cash currency, there is a spread (the difference between the selling price and the buying price. — Ed.) and the buying rate often differs significantly from the selling rate,” the expert reminds.

Anton Prokudin, chief macroeconomist at Ingosstrakh Investments Management Company, believes that it is worth taking advantage of the opportunity that has arisen.

"Someone really does book tours. Someone buys equipment, but there is no need to rush with it - the rate is translated into store prices with a big delay. Unfortunately, cash currency cannot be bought at the prices that are shown to us. We will have to wait until the rate stabilizes and the exchange offices move their rates to the exchange rates," Anton Prokudin noted.

The head of the analytical department of the investment company "Rikom-Trust", Ph.D. in Economics Oleg Abelev advises taking advantage of the situation, which will soon change.

"When planning trips abroad, purchasing foreign goods and services, it is relevant to purchase dollars at the current moment, in the short term. The ruble-dollar currency pair is quite volatile, and in the very near future, the ruble is likely to weaken. In the event of a weakening of the sanctions regime, a large outflow of foreign currency from the Russian money supply is possible. Against the backdrop of easing sanctions and geopolitics, we may see not a strengthening, but a weakening of the ruble," the expert summed up.