What interest rates on loans and deposits should be expected after the key rate is reduced?
Banks expected such a development of events and prepared for it in advance. A month ago, a number of banks reduced deposit rates. Businesses also expect interest rates on loans to be reduced, but do not predict a sharp increase in business activity.
The key rate has decreased — what will happen to credit and deposit rates? The day before, the Central Bank lowered the key rate from 21% to 20% for the first time in three years. Experts note that banks expected such a development of events and prepared for it in advance. Thus, after the last meeting of the Central Bank at the end of April, 13 banks revised their deposit rates, and the average yield on deposits — regardless of the term — began to decline. And the trend is gaining momentum — the day before, Sovcombank lowered its deposit rates, and Sberbank plans to do the same from June 1 — the rate on the “Best%” and “Sbervklad” deposits will be 19% per annum for all terms. Later, the reduction will affect savings accounts. Some other financial institutions also do not rule out that they will soon change the terms of their savings products.
The process will be gradual, says T-Investments chief economist Sofya Donetsk:
— Rates will decrease gradually, and indeed, it will take a very, very long time before deposits cease to be a super-interesting instrument. Normally, deposit rates are usually set at about 1% less than the key rate. Rates will gradually adjust there, to 20%, in the next month or two. But let us note once again that this is still a rate that more than covers the current inflation, the instrument remains popular, and, as we have seen in previous times after high rates, when rates are reduced, in fact, the habit of saving remains with us for a long time. That is, not only is the deposit not used immediately for consumption, but we even continue to save as intensively as in previous periods. Such a fitness habit."
— What should the key rate be for an outflow to occur?
— We rarely had an outflow from deposits at all, literally one striking episode was 2020, when rates were much lower than even 5%. But at the same time, some people were losing income, losing their jobs, and using savings for their intended purpose, that is, compensating for the drop in income. Now such a scenario is not implied. Since the reduction in rates is not yet a signal to go on a spree or go into consumption, savings in the Russian economy as a whole have accumulated high, then this small, smooth transition to lower deposit rates will most likely cause a flow into other classes of financial assets.
In addition to deposit rates, the terms of credit products also changed in the run-up to the Central Bank meeting - this concerned, in particular, both car loans and mortgages. And OTP Bank noted that if at the beginning of January the average interest rate on loans to individuals in rubles for up to a year was at the level of almost 33%, then by the end of March it had dropped to 28%.
Should we expect a revival of the lending market? Says Pavel Samiev, CEO of the analytical agency "BusinessDrom":
Pavel Samiev, CEO of the analytical agency "BusinessDrom"
The next meeting of the Central Bank on the key rate will be held on July 25. Economists expect either the key rate to be maintained at 20% or to be reduced to 18-19%.
bfm.ru
