The search for direction in global markets continues

As the dilemma of inflation and recession continues around the world, concerns remain that the steps taken by Trump as part of his "America First" policy could disrupt global trade.

While concerns that the trade war that Trump started with tariffs with countries with which the US has close trade relations may deepen have caused risk perception to rise, signals from macroeconomic data are also directing investors to act cautiously.

Trump, who signed the executive order instructing the Commerce Department to investigate possible tariffs on copper imports, later used the following statements on his Truth Social account: "In order to rebuild our copper industry, I have asked my Commerce Secretary and the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to investigate copper imports and end the unfair trade that puts Americans out of work."

Trump emphasized that the tariffs would help rebuild the American copper industry and strengthen the national defense of the United States, saying, "American industries depend on copper, and copper should be produced in America. No exemptions, no exceptions."

On the other hand, while questions remain about whether Trump's policies could increase inflationary pressures, concerns also persist that this situation could narrow the policy space of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

While pricing in money markets suggests that the Fed will make its first interest rate cut of this year in June, it is estimated that the bank will make a total of two interest rate cuts throughout the year.

On the macroeconomic data front, the New York Fed Consumer Confidence Index fell more than expected, falling 7 points monthly to 98.3 in February.

On the corporate side, following news that the US administration is planning more restrictions on chip exports to China, Nvidia shares, which will release its balance sheet today, fell by nearly 3 percent, while Broadcom shares fell by 2.6 percent, Advanced Micro Devices shares fell by 3.8 percent and chip hardware manufacturer Lam Research shares fell by 3.6 percent.

Separately, Tesla's shares fell more than 8 percent after it reported a sharp decline in European sales.

While these developments have caused bond demand to strengthen, the US 10-year bond interest, which has also been falling in the last five business days, decreased by approximately 10 basis points yesterday to 4.29 percent, the lowest level since December 12. While the US 10-year bond stabilized at 4.33 percent on the new day, the dollar index is at 106.4, up 0.1 percent.

The ounce price of gold, which has broken records repeatedly due to global uncertainties increasing investors' demand for safe haven assets, fell by 1.3 percent yesterday to $2,913, and is currently traded at $2,917, up 0.2 percent.

Brent crude oil is also selling at $72.7 a barrel, just above its previous close.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 index lost 0.47 percent and the Nasdaq index lost 1.35 percent on the New York Stock Exchange, while the Dow Jones index rose 0.37 percent. Index futures contracts in the US started the new day on a positive note.

Europe

While European stock markets had a mixed trend yesterday, announcements regarding the increase in defense spending are being closely followed.

International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings reported that increased defense spending will lead to higher fiscal deficits and financing needs in Europe.

It was recalled in the statement that European Union (EU) Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this month that the joint expenditures of EU member states should exceed 3 percent of GDP, and that the UK has committed to increase its defense expenditures to 2.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2027.

The statement said that these expenditures in the UK will be financed by cuts from overseas aid and that the target is to increase it to 3% later.

While political developments in Germany are being followed, CDU Leader Friedrich Merz, the chancellor candidate of the Christian Democratic Union Party (CDU) and the Christian Social Union Party (CSU), announced that negotiations with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) to form a coalition government will be intensified.

Yesterday, the DAX 40 index in Germany fell by 0.07 percent and the CAC 40 index in France fell by 0.49 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in England rose by 0.11 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy rose by 0.63 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a mixed course.

Asia

On the Asian side, a positive trend stands out, led by technology stocks except for Japan , while Nvidia's financial results are awaited throughout the region.

Despite Trump's tariff statements, Alibaba's announcement that it will invest $53 billion to develop artificial intelligence infrastructure increased risk appetite in the region.

On the other hand, according to data announced today in the region, the leading index in Japan for December was 108.3.

With these developments, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.7 percent near the close, while South Korea's Kospi rose 0.4 percent, China's Shanghai composite index rose 0.7 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 3 percent.

Domestic markets

BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-heavy course in the country yesterday, closed the day with a 1.29 percent loss of value at 9,451.58 points.

USD/TL, which closed horizontally at 36.4430 yesterday, is being traded at 36.4620 today, up 0.1 percent at the opening of the interbank market.

Analysts stated that the data agenda will be calm in Turkey today, and that the GfK consumer confidence index in Germany and new home sales in the US will be monitored abroad, and noted that from a technical perspective, 9,400 and 9,300 points are support and 9,600 and 9,700 are resistance levels in the BIST 100 index.