Regime on edge: If Khamenei is slain, who will rule Iran? Behind the scenes of Supreme Leader succession battle

As Israeli bombs hit Tehran and top Iranian commanders are killed, 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is more isolated than ever. This has led to growing questions about who could replace him if he dies.Khamenei has lost several of his closest military and intelligence advisers in recent Israeli airstrikes. Among the dead are Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of its ballistic missile programme, and spy chief Mohammad Kazemi. These men were not just senior officials but central figures in Khamenei’s advisory circle.The loss of top leaders has raised doubts about how strong Iran’s leadership is and what might happen to the regime next.For now, Khamenei remains in power. He retains the final say on all major decisions in Iran, from war to judicial appointments. Those familiar with his leadership describe him as "extremely stubborn but also extremely cautious", a mindset credited with keeping him at the top since 1989.As US President Donald Trump warned that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is “an easy target” and admitted the US knows exactly where he is, speculation is growing over who might take over if Khamenei is eliminated. Though Trump said there are “no current plans” to kill him, he added, “Our patience is wearing thin,” raising fears of a possible strike.With Khamenei increasingly isolated and Iran under attack, here are the top contenders who could succeed him if the unthinkable happens.Mojtaba KhameneiMojtaba, the Supreme Leader’s 55-year-old son, is a mid-ranking cleric who has remained largely out of public view. He is believed to play a key behind-the-scenes role in coordinating security and political affairs and is particularly close to the Revolutionary Guards. Many observers believe Khamenei has been quietly grooming him for succession. However, a dynastic transfer of power may face resistance even within Iran’s conservative establishment.Ali Asghar HejaziAs the deputy for political-security affairs in the Supreme Leader’s office, Hejazi wields enormous influence behind the curtain. Reuters has described him as the most powerful intelligence official in the country, with direct oversight of security operations and close ties to both the Guards and clerical elites. He is not a cleric, but his proximity to Khamenei gives him considerable weight.Mohammad GolpayeganiMohammad Golpayegani is the long-time chief of staff in Khamenei’s office and one of his most trusted aides. He is known for being loyal and keeping a low profile. While not well-known to the public, his deep knowledge of how the system works and his central role behind the scenes make him a possible surprise candidate or key player in choosing the next leader.Ali Akbar VelayatiAli Akbar Velayati, a former foreign minister and senior adviser to Khamenei on foreign affairs, blends religious knowledge with years of government experience. He sits on the Expediency Council and strongly supports Iran’s regional alliances. Though he’s respected and trusted, his old age and poor health could work against him.Kamal KharaziKamal Kharazi, a former foreign minister, now leads Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations. He sounds more moderate than hardliners but has always stayed within the regime’s limits. Fluent in English and experienced at the UN, he helped shape Iran’s diplomacy after the nuclear deal. Some in the government see him as a skilled, technocratic option.Ali LarijaniAli Larijani, former parliament speaker and ex-head of Iran’s state broadcaster, comes from a well-known clerical family in Qom. A conservative with a practical approach, he is close to Khamenei and the security forces but also seen as somewhat independent. His experience and loyalty to the regime make him a possible compromise candidate.The Assembly of ExpertsIran’s constitution gives the power of succession to the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of senior clerics elected every eight years. This group is expected to deliberate in secret and could even appoint a leadership council rather than a single Supreme Leader. Many believe Mojtaba’s chances will depend on whether the assembly members are united, divided, or coerced.