The Liberals need a few floor-crossers to form a majority. That might not be so easy

With the federal Liberals just a few seats shy of a majority government, there's been some speculation over whether Prime Minister Mark Carney might be zeroing in on members of Parliament from other parties to cross the floor and join his party's fold.

But coaxing over those few MPs needed for a majority would still be a significant challenge, some observers say.

"Oh, that's hard," said former B.C. NDP MP Nathan Cullen. "That's a whole heap of moral flexibility that you're going to be seeking."

"The challenge is that you're never fully trusted by the party you crossed to and you're hated by the party you just left," Cullen said. "So you can be prepared for some lonely days."

The Liberals won a fourth mandate by capturing 169 seats, just missing out on the 172 seats needed for a majority government. Although most members of Parliament are elected with a party affiliation — some may run as Independents — they aren't required to stay with that party.

"Crossing the floor" is the expression used to describe "a Member's decision to break all ties binding the Member to a particular political party," according to the House of Commons Procedure and Practice.

WATCH | Mark Carney asked about MPs crossing the floor to the Liberal Party:

Prime Minister Mark Carney is asked if governing with a minority could weaken his position in negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump. Carney says there is only one prime minister and that he has broad support from Canadians across the country.

Asked during his news conference Friday whether he was trying to attract other party members to cross the floor and join the Liberal caucus, Carney didn't specifically answer, saying instead that his "mandate is strong."

While overtures could be made to any party member, the Liberals might see some NDP MP-elects as more vulnerable to crossing the floor. Only seven of the party's candidates were elected, its leader Jagmeet Singh lost his riding and the NDP has lost "recognized party" status.

Yet some with the NDP have already publicly insisted they have no intention of leaving their party.

"I'm a proud member of the NDP caucus," NDP MP-elect Jenny Kwan said in a statement. "I always remain open to working collaboratively with other parties on public policy solutions but I am a New Democrat and will remain a New Democrat."

NDP MP-elect Gord Johns also told CBC News that "it's not an option."

"I'm a New Democrat. I'm a proud New Democrat. It's something I wouldn't even consider no matter what the … scenario is," he said.

Cullen says he doesn't see any possibility for an MP to cross the floor that wouldn't require a "whole heap of rationalization and pretzel twisting," and that wouldn't potentially anger constituents.

"I don't see Conservative voters watching a Conservative cross the floor and being happy with the notion. And double that for the NDP."

Members of Parliament have crossed the floor since Confederation and there have been some high-profile floor-crossers in the recent past.

In 2005, Conservative MP Belinda Stronach, who had run for the leadership of the party just a year earlier, crossed the floor to the Liberal Party to become a member of then prime minister Paul Martin's cabinet.

David Emerson was elected as a Liberal in the B.C. riding of Vancouver-Kingsway in the 2006 election. But he was sworn in as a member of Stephen Harper's Conservative cabinet two weeks later.

Both defections drew controversy. Emerson's floor crossing would become the focus of an investigation by the ethics commissioner, who ultimately cleared Emerson and Harper of wrongdoing.

Stronach would go on to win in the next election running as a Liberal in her Newmarket-Aurora riding. Emerson decided not to run again.

Still, Cullen believes that such floor-crossings are "potential political suicide."

A 2018 study examining House of Commons floor-crossers from 1867 to 2015 found that party switchers have increasingly paid an electoral price at the ballot box.

Christopher Cochrane, an associate professor of political science at the University of Toronto, says that's one of the challenges for a potential floor-crosser — they have to be in a district where a Liberal could conceivably win.

"Otherwise, the person's just dead in the water as soon as there's an election call," he said. "So that likely would really disincentivize an MP from crossing over."

He says it's also challenging to find an MP from another party who's reasonably ideologically aligned with the party, and able to accept the kinds of policies they intend to implement.

Cochrane says Liberals would also have to worry about the morale issues on their own team.

An MP from another party who crosses the floor could end up with a cabinet position or some other high-profile role, angering those MPs who've been loyal to the party for years.

"So you can create morale issues and create loyalty issues," Cochrane said.

"And when you have a super slim majority, the last thing you want to do is kind of incentivize in any way shape or form a backbench revolt in your own party."

But despite being just a few seats away from a majority government, Carney may not need to poach MPs from other parties, according to Liberal strategist Stevie O'Brien.

She questioned the need for a majority government at this time, saying there's no appetite from any of the parties to go back to the polls.

The NDP is leaderless, has no money and lost party status, while the Bloc Québécois has indicated a willingness to support the government as long as U.S. President Donald Trump remains a threat, she said.

"So at least for the next two years, I don't think there's any urgency for Prime Minister Carney to go making promises, or courting … other parties."