The PS's troubles

José Luís Carneiro, the new leader of the PS, who has not yet been enthroned, has gotten himself into serious political trouble. He will need a lot of resilience and strength to face all the challenges.

1. Big trouble: he is obliged to perform well in the local elections. The PS has always had good results, is the largest local party and cannot fall into second or third place. The new leader has to worry about everyone, from the right to the left.
2. Huge trouble: the candidate supported by the PS for the Presidential elections cannot lose. Nor can he be left behind. The centre-right has already held the Presidency of the Republic for 20 consecutive years — Cavaco and Marcelo — and there is a risk that the next president will be the admiral or Marques Mendes, which would mean 30 years of heads of state from the right-wing spectrum.
3. Superlative trouble: with no guaranteed solutions to the two previous troubles, José Luís Carneiro risks becoming a transitional secretary-general. He wants to cooperate with the AD — this undermines the alternation and favours Chega — and the lack of ideological distinction “kills” any party. With Pedro Nuno Santos, it was clear where he was and where he was going. This does not seem to be the new leader’s political strategy, but there is still time to observe and correct.

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