"Aliyev Can't Back Down?" The Moscow-Baku Axis Has Broken, Everyone Will Feel the Consequences

Elena Petrova, Tatyana Sviridova

What happened to Ilham Aliyev, who switched to “hawkish rhetoric” in relation to Russia?

He has always maintained loyalty and partnership relations, both in words and in deeds, with Russia at the state level and with Vladimir Putin at the personal level. Journalists have managed to calculate that Aliyev has met with the Russian president many times over the past three years. Now it is as if he has been replaced.

In response to the harsh actions of Russian security forces against the Azerbaijani diaspora in the Urals, which led to the death of two people, the Azerbaijani authorities are responding with equally harsh and equally demonstrative arrests of Russians.

Following the Russian House and the editorial office of the Azerbaijani "Sputnik", as well as the arrest of a dozen programmers and tourists from the Russian Federation, there followed a decision to close Russian schools in the country, which, however, was later denied . Each day begins with new steps that distance Baku from Moscow.

- Aliyev cannot back down, otherwise he will lose his prestige as a national leader. Here they got into the national question, and it is the most delicate one. The process is constantly growing. By the way, this is typical for authoritarian states. This is not a question of business. This is a question: am I the boss or not? Will the people follow me or not? In this situation, business fades into the background, - believes Doctor of Political Sciences Yuliy Nisnevich.

After the exchange of demonstrative acts of intimidation, there was a lull, but this is temporary, experts believe. The main problem, they say, is that Moscow seems not to have noticed how Azerbaijan has become a strong regional state. Russian propagandists continue to say that Baku is a Russian city, and Vladimir Solovyov never tires of repeating: “We raise an eyebrow, what Azerbaijan.”

— To put it carefully, this is political licentiousness. The world is structured differently now. Every state believes that it has rights, and they cannot be treated this way. In modern conditions, this is unacceptable. Moreover, Azerbaijan is not the poorest or the most backward country. It feels quite comfortable. Turkey is behind it, everything is quite clear here. And here they decided that everything is allowed, and so they jumped to their deaths, — Yuliy Nisnevich sums up.

Azerbaijan has managed its oil wisely, not giving up its natural resources to one person. In a military sense, Baku relies on Turkey. However, Russia has not ceased to be an important trading partner. But the victory in Karabakh has especially inspired the nation. Ilham Aliyev has fulfilled the promise made by his father Heydar Aliyev. Now the authorities in Absheron have no need to flirt with Russia and swallow possible insults.

— Under the elder Aliyev, Azerbaijan was not yet 100% independent. And now it has reached this level. The younger Aliyev is internationally recognized, everyone visits him, everyone wants to be friends with him. Under dad, the state was still very young. Now it has reached a certain maturity and does not want to lose face. In addition, unfortunately, this whole story with the diaspora has come to light, — the expert says.

And as a confirmation of the country's strength, political circles are seriously proposing to place a Turkish military base there or lease it to another partner - Pakistan, which has its own nuclear weapons.

Is this really what the Russian authorities were trying to achieve?

Experts view the worsening of relations with a loyal partner as an inability of Russian diplomacy to quell the crisis. Now Ilham Aliyev openly receives the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, and Nikol Pashinyan expresses support for Baku in the conflict. And who needed this?

Fuel and energy experts listen with surprise to statements by politicians in the Russian Federation about Azerbaijan's dependence on Russian oil and gas. Fantastic figures are voiced that Moscow's share in the energy balance of its southern neighbor reaches almost 25%.

— We don’t really cooperate in the oil and gas sector; we are basically competitors on the global market. Because both we and they export both oil and gas. We don’t sell them anything now, although there were times when we helped them out, — recalls Igor Yushkov, leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

This situation occurred in the 2010s, when Azerbaijan failed to deliver gas under its export contracts. It was threatened with fines and penalties, and then Gazprom came to the rescue. But now the Azerbaijanis are implementing a large gas project, Shah Deniz 2, and have simultaneously built two gas pipelines to Europe.

And the North-South project in its oil part remained just a proposal from Russia, to which Baku did not even respond. But container shipments through Azerbaijan to Iran are underway. Baku does not want an oil pipeline, and Moscow cannot for many reasons, the first being the unstable situation in Iran.

— Now Russian companies will say: where are we going? So that our exports will be blocked? Why invest billions of dollars in building a pipeline, expanding the pipeline, in construction on Iranian territory, building a port, so that we will then suffer from the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz? I think that current history has shown everything, — says Igor Yushkov.

However, cooperation between Azerbaijan and Russia in the direction of energy resources is still underway. And surprisingly, it is a fact: Azerbaijanis are helping Moscow to bypass sanctions.

The National Crime Agency and the Treasury have issued a red alert for two Azerbaijani oil traders.

Etibar Eyyub and Tahir Garayev operate more than 100 tankers of the Russian shadow fleet and help Rosneft in the export direction. The British accuse traders of disabling the automatic identification system AIS on their tankers. The tankers transship oil at sea to hide its origin, and the owners regularly change the flags under which the vessels sail. And all this is done in order to prevent Western authorities from tracking the movement of oil from the Russian Federation.

At the same time, rumors have been swirling in the Russian oil market that tensions between Baku and Moscow are creating additional risks for some Russian oil companies. One that often comes up is Russia's Lukoil, which was founded by ethnic Azerbaijani Vagit Alekperov.

— The stakes are high. Taking away such property in the oil industry will cause destabilization. Of course, this creates additional risks for Lukoil. But even purely formally, Alekperov is not the head of Lukoil, although everyone understands that he is definitely the "founding father" and he certainly retains influence on Lukoil, but formally he is not the head, not the controlling shareholder. For this to happen, I think the relations must become very tense, — Igor Yushkov expresses doubts.

According to the expert, Lukoil will now do everything it can to distance itself from the story with the Azerbaijani diaspora.

- They don't need to associate themselves with Azerbaijan at all, with worsening relations. Just keep quiet. This is a Russian company. Please, we have nothing to do with them, - Igor Yushkov predicts the company's actions.

Just a year ago, observers on both sides of the border were looking at photographs of a friendly meeting between the Azerbaijani presidential couple and the Russian leader. At the time, the politicians were meeting informally late in the evening. Vladimir Putin was sitting on a low sofa without a jacket. Opposite him were Ilham Aliyev and his beautiful and clever wife Mehriban, the country's first vice president. Everyone was smiling, the atmosphere was relaxed, as it usually is between friends.

Today, the main actors — the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan — remain silent in the public space. Particularly “informed” resources report on the covert attempts to reconcile, which are being undertaken from various sides by dollar billionaires-Azerbaijanis living in Russia. But there is no official reaction.

Moreover, the media reported today that difficulties have arisen in Russia in accessing Azerbaijani resources published in Russian. There are problems in Moscow, Astrakhan, Volgograd, St. Petersburg, Vologda, Chelyabinsk and other regions, and not only in the mobile Internet, but also when trying to access via a wired Internet. At the same time, Roskomnadzor did not notify the editorial boards of these media outlets that proceedings were being conducted against them.

— We don’t know how this spiral will continue to unwind. For now, it’s on the rise, so any cards can be put on the table. I don’t know, I hope someone will be smart enough to stop and start easing the situation. There are simply no more painful topics than national feelings. At this stage, it’s hard to say what will calm the heart. Every day, some new tricks happen, — Yuliy Nisnevich states.

With Russia's withdrawal from the South Caucasus, there are fewer and fewer levers of influence on the situation. Diplomacy thinks in terms of the last century, when there is a great Russia, and behind it are various satellites. There are many ambitions, says Professor Nisnevich, but the result is zero:

— They have lost influence everywhere. Apart from Lukashenko, there is no one left. And they continue the same line. The world has changed. It is no longer centralized and hierarchical. It is distributed, everyone claims to be treated with respect. Each country demonstrates that it is sufficiently subjective. The old Soviet habits no longer work.

On the other hand, it might be good that the Kremlin is silent. Then there remains the possibility that the conflict can be resolved, although with so many broken dishes, it will not be easy.