Mümtaz'er Türköne wrote: Who will win, who will lose?

The question you start with is very important . When you ask “who will win?” you are comparing the advantages of the parties; when you ask “who will lose?” you are comparing their weak points. The right thing to do is to do both, adhering to the game plans the parties have devised. Cards are played openly, the parties know what the other party has in their hands and minds. Not only the game planners, but even ordinary citizens with their jobs and responsibilities can predict where the conflict will evolve. In this gripping scenario, we have all the familiar clichés memorized. While the ruling power, the Palace, is dragging Turkey into an authoritarian regime with rapid moves on the open political stage, in broad daylight, in front of everyone’s eyes, the other party resists by saying “I saw your hand and raised it.” Thus, the political crisis will escalate as long as one party’s will to give in continues and the other party resists.

Let's review the assumptions and possibilities. First, let's picture who will win or lose, that is, the actors.

The one who initiated and escalated the crisis or conflict is Erdoğan. The unequivocally settled opinion is that Erdoğan, whose public support is declining, is launching serial operations to force the only potential rival, the CHP, to surrender by straining the means at his disposal. The ruler is holding on to the power he has and eliminating those who covet his place.

It was perceived as an “I won’t go crisis” that locked Türkiye down and threatened political and economic stability.

Erdoğan is a charismatic leader. His popularity and popular support far exceed his party's image. Especially in the second half of his 23-year rule, the deterrent instruments of state power have come under his sole monopoly. He does not argue or negotiate with anyone, he just makes decisions and his orders are implemented.

The CHP, on the other hand, is an institution with its leader Özgür Özel, presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu, mayors who have a living counterpart in the public, especially in Ankara, even factions within the party, and of course Kılıçdaroğlu. This comparison is very important. Not even one of these many popular names accepted as “people’s heroes” has an equivalent in the AK Party.

Erdoğan said, “Thank God, we are standing tall. We will continue to be here until the rightful order comes true,” and thus gave a lifespan to his reign. May Allah grant him a long life, but this statement has a mass and critical meaning in political competition. When a government that stands on its feet with the charisma of a single person disintegrates and falls apart after the “rightful order,” what will those left behind do? The AK Party loyalists, who have turned into a network of interests over time, are closely watching the CHP sharpen its strength and overflow with anger. What will happen to them in the future CHP’s reign? How will the bulldozers of the Former Era pass over them? That is why they do not get involved, and when they catch a thin opportunity, they voice their objections on the right and left about what is being done to the CHP, saying, “This is not enough.”

The answer to the question “Who?” is as follows: Erdoğan is alone, all alone; he has the entire CHP tradition, organization and new elites whose places can easily be filled, with whom he has forced solidarity.

Let's add those that are not. The MHP in power is not involved in these operations. From time to time, it even makes some relative objections with messages emphasizing law and justice. The opposition front was wiped out with one stroke of the pen, except for the CHP. Even a marginal party like the Victory Party feels obliged to support the CHP.

The “I won’t go” crisis has created a new alignment and polarization. The balances within the political spectrum have been reshaped by the CHP’s weight. The CHP is putting down its roots deep on this stage, reaching areas it could never reach. A clear CHP hegemony is being established within the spectrum of parties.

The two sides understand each other very well and have an open dialogue.

Erdoğan is very disturbed by the CHP’s rising public support, and especially by the materialization of this support in the rally areas. The call to “engage in politics in Ankara” means that the power that the CHP has brought to the field has been registered by the Palace. The CHP has opened an important channel that will lead it to salvation, and it is constantly expanding this channel.

How much further can the crisis escalate, where CHP members are being arrested and rallies are continuing at full speed?

It could go so far as to drag Türkiye into deep political chaos. One side must give up.

Which side? Of course, the side that created, managed and escalated the crisis. CHP does not and cannot give up. Such an institution may be wounded, but it will not fall. Those who give up bid farewell to politics, and their places are filled by new warriors.

A dialogue between Erdoğan and Özgür Özel, which both sides understand very well about the “street demonstrations”, continues in the form of a polemic. Özgür Özel threatens the street polemic by saying, “Just wait, the streets haven’t started yet.” If arrests become widespread, resistance will increase. If widespread street demonstrations turn violent, then a state of emergency will be declared. The day the state of emergency is declared, the opposition will be dethroned and Turkey will have entered an openly fascist administration.

Do not rush to the conclusion that “the intention is to provoke the CHP and declare a state of emergency”. The cost of this scenario will be very, very heavy. Right now, both sides have a stake in escalating tension, otherwise they will have given up. However, the responsibility lies with the Palace. The tension is the work of that side, and if chaos emerges from this crisis, it will have completely lost its moral superiority. The legitimacy problem that will destroy the building, like digging the soil under the foundation, is growing for the AKP government.

The “I won’t go crisis” needs to interact with a completely different problem that goes beyond the will and calculations of the parties. On one side, Turkey will become authoritarian and struggle with rain and mud storms, and on the other side, it will produce democracy and law for the solution of the Kurdish problem. These two are impossible together.

Do not be fooled by the PKK laying down its arms and dissolving itself. These are the declaration of the obvious, the real problem is to lay the foundation stones of the new century that we will enter by sharing our fate with the Kurds. Our path is completely clear on this issue, but not a single step has been taken. The optimism of DEM and Kurdish politics is due to the existence of hopes that everything is possible.

You cannot solve this vital survival problem for both the state and the nation in the ever-escalating crisis environment ahead of us, which has crushed all personal rivalries and power games in Türkiye. Moreover, you cannot become authoritarian. It is impossible to combine two opposing directions, such as becoming authoritarian for the government and democratizing for the Kurds. With horses that are connected to each other but running in two different directions, you will experience great disasters for both targets.

The basic dynamics of political processes are needs. We haven’t even mentioned the economy. In the midst of such serious problems, the winner of power struggles cannot be determined by palace intrigue. You can predict the outcome by following the needs, demands and expectations of the people.

It is clear who wins and who loses.

The story always ends like this: At the end of a long war, the loyal knights of the king, whose army is defeated, continue to fight.