US wind crisis: green investments decline, EU companies retreat

US offshore wind has entered a critical phase. The reason: Washington's new strategy of decoupling from Chinese supplies , namely its decision to separate itself from Beijing's supply chains and focus on domestic oil and gas. This move has slowed major offshore projects , driven up costs, and prompted European investors to withdraw.

The strategy, accompanied by the end of many incentives and rising inflationary costs, had a boomerang effect: US renewable energy investments plummeted 36% year-on-year in the first months of 2025. Faced with an increasingly uncertain scenario, American companies revised their investment plans, while European companies began shifting capital and resources to more stable markets, especially in Northern Europe and Asia. For Ørsted and Equinor , the two largest foreign developers in the United States, 2025 was a year of setbacks: offshore projects in Rhode Island and New York were subjected to stoppage orders, later partially lifted after agreements with the administration. A federal judge also overturned the freeze on Ørsted's Revolution project, but its continuation remains uncertain.

“The shift in US policy is not only slowing down projects already approved, but also discouraging European investment,” explains Alexander Fløtre , senior vice president and head of offshore wind research at Rystad Energy. “The supply chain between the United States and China may be disrupted, but it will further strengthen Beijing's leadership in renewables .” Despite the US stalemate, new global offshore wind capacity will still reach 16 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2025, driven by projects under construction. Two-thirds of this is in China , where industrial planning remains stable and integrated. By 2030, according to Rystad estimates, China will control 45% of the world's cumulative capacity, consolidating its leadership in the sector.

Meanwhile, domestically, China's CNOOC has announced the expansion of its wind portfolio with a new 1.5 GW project in Hainan (CZ7), already approved and scheduled to begin operations by 2030. This will be the group's first industrial-scale plant. Internationally, many European companies with less presence in the American market will become increasingly dependent on China and other Asian countries for components and supplies. This, according to Rystad, will further reduce the possibility of building an alternative renewable energy supply chain capable of competing with China's. This is confirmed by the decision of many Western turbine manufacturers (OEMs), who fled the country in 2020, to return to China, attracted by more favorable market conditions. Rystad reports that a quarter of the production sites for key components for European OEMs are already located in the Asian country.

The European wind industry has acknowledged the risk. Brussels is working on new measures to strengthen the domestic supply chain, reducing dependence on Beijing. Among the priorities: stimulating manufacturing investments, simplifying authorization procedures, and containing costs. "European institutions want to foster production growth without losing competitiveness," concludes Andrea Scassola , vice president of supply chain research at Rystad Energy. "Only in this way can Europe defend its industrial autonomy in the global race for offshore wind."