Save Yourself Who Can? Which Regions of the Russian Federation Will Suffer the Most from Climate Change

Elena Petrova, Tatyana Sviridova

Today, St. Petersburg is experiencing a hurricane and flooding… for the first time in July in the last 160 years. The water level in the Neva has risen to 120 cm above normal, but the complex of protective structures, the famous St. Petersburg "dam", is coping so far. Only the suburbs located on the shore of the Gulf of Finland behind the dam are flooded.

“Ladies and gentlemen, we are living in interesting times in terms of weather,” wrote the chief St. Petersburg weather forecaster Alexander Kolesov the day before.

What other surprises can we expect from the climate in the near future?

Heat in Siberia, fires in Transbaikalia, and then a flood ... Cold weather in June in the Central Federal District and a long-term drought in the south of the country... These natural disasters are well known to the population. But these events are not only a snapshot, good or bad weather for today or a week ahead, but also a projection of the climate, which is changing before our eyes.

It is already possible to say which Russian regions will suffer the most from climate change on the planet, and not only in the near future, but also in the long term until the 2060s. This rating was developed by scientists from the Russian Academy of Sciences and the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

They based their analysis on five natural hazards that are increasingly common in our latitudes: heat, drought or water stress, forest fires, extreme precipitation, and permafrost degradation.

The goal of this work is to identify where in the Russian Federation it is necessary to start preparing for the worst right now, without delay. The top quarter of the most vulnerable regions includes 21 subjects of the Federation, but this problem is most acute in three subjects: Krasnoyarsk Krai, Irkutsk and Sverdlovsk Oblasts. Here, the need for adaptation has been identified for four out of five hazards. In nine regions, scientists have noted three risks at once. These regions are:

Usually, climatologists consider changes by states. But Russia is one of the largest countries in terms of area and climate zones. You can’t approach it with a standard template. Therefore, scientists compiled ratings for each hazard by region.

Heat waves have become a frequent occurrence in the central and southern European regions. Drought is observed in the Black Earth Region and the Caucasus, as well as in the Volga region and the Southern Urals. Fires are raging in Siberia, and extreme rains are flooding the Far East, says Alexander Chernokulsky , Deputy Director of the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, describing the distribution of risks across the country.

The scientists focused on the impact of climate change on human life. Therefore, the Moscow region was among those where the need to prepare for a new climate life should begin now.

— Taking into account the design of the risks that we assessed, everything that is connected with people, primarily the urban population, is a high risk, because there is a lot of urban population. We assessed the risk as a combination of three indicators: danger, exposure and vulnerability. In terms of exposure of the urban population, Moscow, of course, is in first place, — Alexander Chernokulsky told Novye Izvestia.

The dry summer months are already affecting the harvest in traditionally agricultural regions - Krasnodar, Stavropol, Rostov and Lower Volga regions.

— The duration of rainless periods will increase. Our rating demonstrates that the regions where agriculture is currently being carried out and where there is already a fairly large need for water, these regions have reached the top lines of the rating, — says Alexander Chernokulsky.

Heat waves will also increase, but this phenomenon will be especially intense in densely populated areas of Central Russia.

But winters will be milder. This does not mean that there will be no frosts at all, but there will be significantly fewer of them.

— The polar night is here, and it is not going anywhere. Arctic air masses are forming. They will “enter” the southern latitudes. But overall, the temperature is rising, and the frequency of mild winters will increase. But, I repeat, this does not mean that every winter will be mild, — the scientist warns.

However, the danger of power outages increases significantly. In hot weather, power generation is less efficient, and the load on the grid due to air conditioners increases many times over. People will increasingly face complete power outages, as happened last summer in the Stavropol and Krasnoyarsk Territories and in the Rostov Region.

Permafrost melting is happening everywhere along the southern boundary of permafrost, and that is a fact. And if heat waves threaten human health, and drought threatens food security, then the disappearance of permafrost becomes dangerous for all objects built by man from Urengoy to Yakutia.

"This is a big problem for the objects located on it. More and more money is spent on freezing, on strengthening measures. This is the most serious threat to our country in the face of climate change," believes Alexander Chernokulsky.

The accident at TPP-3 in Norilsk showed how dangerous the melting of the ice shell of Siberia and the Arctic can be. In May 2020, 21 tons of diesel fuel spilled from a container into the Ambarnaya and Daldykan rivers, as well as into Lake Pyasino. The maximum permissible concentrations were exceeded by tens of thousands of times. The accident occurred because the permafrost melted under the container. All environmentalists warned Norilsk Nickel management about the danger since 2017, but industrialists did not pay attention to it.

As a result, Norilsk Nickel paid the state a record fine of 146 billion rubles and spent hundreds of millions on collecting hydrocarbons and cleaning water.

The scientists hope that the rating they have compiled will help authorities determine which regions need to be prepared for change first.

— The results of our study can help determine which set of risks is the most significant for a particular territory... This allows us to use our approach to refine existing plans for adaptation to climate change and select the most optimal adaptation measures and strategies, — says Igor Makarov, co-author of the study and head of the HSE Research and Educational Laboratory for Climate Change Economics .

It only remains to be seen whether the regional authorities have such plans and how soon they plan to implement them. The climate clock is ticking.