Treasury is emptying due to lack of oil and gas revenues
There is a deficit, but no money: the Russian budget is going through hard times. Where will the Ministry of Finance get the money to patch up the holes that have appeared due to the decline in oil and gas revenues?
There is no money, but you hold on: this phrase is relevant again, only now it is time to address it to the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov . By the beginning of summer, the federal budget deficit grew to 3.225 trillion rubles, while according to the plan, by the end of the year it should be 1.173 trillion rubles.
Anton Siluanov: The Russian budget is experiencing a “perfect storm.” Photo: Roscongress
Siluanov himself described the situation briefly and clearly at the SPIEF.
— We have a perfect storm, and the same thing is happening in the budget, everything is in serious trouble.
And this storm is clearly not going to stop. In June 2025, oil and gas revenues amounted to only 425.5 billion rubles, which is 33.7% less than last year. Even by the standards of the current year, the collections were extremely weak. In March and April 2025, for example, oil and gas revenues were at the level of 1.08 trillion rubles. As a result, in May, according to the Ministry of Finance, the treasury received 12.3 billion rubles less , in June - 40.3 billion rubles, and the forecast for May is a lag of 25.8 billion rubles from the planned values.
In May-July, the Russian Federation will lose 78.4 billion rubles. Photo: Nikolay Maksimovich / Wikimedia
There is nothing to be done: Russian oil is cheap these days. Western countries are constantly expanding sanctions against the shadow fleet, buyers and transport companies have to take on ever greater risks. As a result, a barrel of Urals oil costs $58.6–58.9 depending on the port of shipment, and the budget includes a price of $69.7 per barrel. And the dollar exchange rate is consistently below 80 rubles.
As a result, the problems of the Ministry of Finance may become everyone's problem: a study by NI showed that, one way or another, every region in Russia receives financial assistance from the federal budget. It gets to the point of being ridiculous: often the amount of support for donor regions turns out to be greater than that for poor subsidized regions and republics.
Sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet have driven oil prices below $60. Photo: Quintin Soloviev / Wikimedia
Due to oil and gas shortages, the Finance Ministry will sell foreign currency worth 18.8 billion rubles in July. But this cannot continue for long: most of the National Welfare Fund's funds are invested in securities - they are used to finance large projects such as road construction and aircraft purchases. And only 153 billion rubles are in foreign currency.
First Deputy Chairman of VTB Dmitry Pianov believes that the strong ruble currently poses the greatest threat to the budget.
— If the ruble remains as strong until the end of the year, then, all other things being equal, the Ministry of Finance may lose another 1 trillion rubles in revenue, and the final budget deficit may approach 5 trillion rubles.
Since the beginning of 2025, the ruble has strengthened by 30%. Photo: investing.com
A strong ruble is indeed inconvenient for the budget. Revenues were calculated based on the fact that the average dollar exchange rate in 2025 will be 96.5 rubles. The Ministry of Finance hoped that a barrel of oil would cost 6,726 rubles, but now it is 4,612 rubles. The authorities cannot raise oil prices, but they can help reduce the ruble exchange rate.
Former Minister of Labor Sergei Kalashnikov believes that the deficit of funds in the federal budget may lead to delays in social and other payments. The way out of this situation, according to the former official, may be to increase taxes.
— The budget requires execution, practice shows that taxes are a quick and effective way to fill this deficit. Therefore, some increase in taxes is possible, fines, a tax on some actions... A tax is the state's contribution for some activity.
Raising taxes will help save the federal budget. Photo: 1MI
At the same time, the head of the Ministry of Finance, Anton Siluanov, rejects the idea of raising taxes.
— We discussed taxes last year and agreed that we would not touch taxes in principle, and this is correct, because it is a tool, an institution for the predictability of our policy.
Indeed, where can we increase it? Since 2025, a progressive scale of personal income tax has been in effect (now the rate can reach 22%), the profit tax rate has been increased from 20% to 25%, and individual entrepreneurs on the simplified tax system with a turnover of 60 million rubles must pay VAT.
But no one prevents the authorities from calling the new fees not taxes, but something else. That is how the recycling fee for cars appeared. And since it is not a tax, it can be raised without any problems. And now the new initiative of the Ministry of Industry and Trade to cancel the preferential recycling when importing cars with more than 160 hp by individuals for personal use should bring in an additional 40-60 billion rubles this year.
Increasing the recycling fee as early as 2025 should bring in an additional 40-60 billion rubles. Photo: newizv.ru
Siluanov himself says directly that the government has other ways of getting money besides raising taxes themselves. For example, they can cancel benefits.
— Benefits are the same tax expenses, and we see that they are not always targeted and effective.
A bleak future is looming: the dollar will once again rush to at least 100 rubles, and the government will reduce subsidies to regions for providing benefits and diligently pump money out of the population by increasing various fees and payments. The authorities have not yet proposed any other way out. State revenues could increase due to economic growth, but, as Siluanov recently said , "we do not have a recession, I assure you. We have a planned cooling of the economy." We cool down and pay.
newizv.ru
