Taxes are higher, salaries are lower: what are Russians being prepared for by the “optimistic” VTsIOM poll?

Oksana Samoilenko, Tatyana Sviridova

The All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) presented the results of a new survey. According to the study , 56% of Russians are satisfied or rather satisfied with the level of their salary and bonuses.

Isn't the figure too high if we compare the data on the average desired income given in the same study? Without taking into account the lowest and highest requests, we get an average salary of 96.8 thousand rubles.

“It roughly corresponds to the average monthly salary in the country in March 2025 before deducting 13% income tax,” the sociologists write.

Not so. When naming an acceptable income level, respondents are unlikely to keep in mind the amount of tax deductions. Almost 100 thousand per month is the average desired salary . The real one is 13% lower.

Let us repeat: so where do the 56% of Russians satisfied with their salaries come from, if the expectations of the majority are at odds with the remuneration they receive?

• June–August 2024. A study by the recruiting company Get Experts showed that only 7% of Russians are satisfied with their salaries.
• September survey of analysts "Zarplata.ru": 11% of citizens are satisfied with their income.
• May 2025. An analysis by Anderida Financial Group confirmed that 75% of Russians are not satisfied with their salary level. Almost half of them said that their finances have become worse than a year ago .

The Internet is already building "conspiracy theories" around the new VTsIOM poll. They say that the authorities are preparing the people for a possible increase in personal income tax or indexation of wages at a lower rate than it was years ago. These hypotheses were refuted in a conversation with "NI" by leading researcher at INION RAS, Doctor of Economics Sergei Smirnov .

“In my opinion, there is a 95% probability that this will not happen in the near future, because the personal income tax was increased relatively recently,” he commented to NI on the first assumption.

Sergey Smirnov recalled that taxes on income from deposits were introduced relatively recently. The non-taxable minimum in 2024 is 210 thousand rubles. If more interest has accumulated over the year than this amount, then a 13 percent tax will have to be paid on the difference.

"In this case, it is approved by 80% of the population, who do not receive significant income from their savings. Therefore, I think that for now the government has resolved all the issues and no taxes will be raised, except perhaps on some completely exorbitant amount of annual income," explained Sergei Smirnov.

Salaries will not grow at double-digit rates next year, the expert believes. Businesses simply do not have the margin of safety for this. But they cannot not index them at all for public sector employees, for example.

"Right now, about 16% of employers say that they will, if not reduce wages, then slow down their growth in every possible way, because the profit margin is falling, and we have nothing to invest from. Therefore, in my opinion, in the near future, these 56% (satisfied with their wage level. - Ed.) may decrease somewhat," the expert believes.

It is only possible to assess how public sentiment regarding salary levels is changing when a representative sample is taken and the results of studies conducted in different years by the same institution are compared.

"It is important how the question was asked: are you satisfied with your salary or your income level. After all, you will agree that there was an increase in savings in commercial banks after the key rate was raised and interest rates on deposits increased. In principle, 15-20% of Russians, if not more, have quite tolerable savings," he added.

So singing the praises of the extremely high level of Russians satisfied with their salaries is at least premature. Especially in anticipation of the increase in housing and communal services tariffs from July 1 and with the current level of food inflation - the two most sensitive items of expenditure for the poorest categories of citizens.