IMF revises Türkiye's growth forecast upwards

The IMF raised Türkiye's growth forecast from 3.3 percent to 3.5 percent. (A News archive)

RISKS TO APPEARANCE ARE INCREASING

The report noted that trade policy uncertainty remains high due to the lack of clear, transparent, and lasting agreements among trading partners, and that the focus is shifting from the final tariff level to its impact on prices, investment, and consumption. The report noted that the impact of more protectionist trade measures on economic activity and prices has thus far been limited, and that growth remained resilient in the first half of the year. The report noted that inflation is sending more mixed signals, with global headline and core inflation rising slightly. The report noted increasing signs that the negative impacts of protectionist measures are beginning to be felt, and that trade policy uncertainty is expected to remain high throughout 2025 and 2026.

The report noted that risks to the outlook have increased as the global economy shifts towards a more fragmented landscape.

Global economic growth expectations were raised from 3.0 percent to 3.2 percent. (A News archive)

Türkiye's economic growth forecasts have been revised upwards.

The report, which also shared countries' economic growth forecasts, noted that growth forecasts for the Turkish economy for this year and next have been revised upwards. The report stated that the Turkish economy is expected to grow 3.5 percent this year and 3.7 percent next year. In its July forecast, the IMF had predicted 3 percent growth for the Turkish economy this year and 3.3 percent next year. The report also noted that average inflation forecasts for Turkey are 34.9 percent this year and 24.7 percent next year, while unemployment expectations are 8.3 percent both this year and next.

SLIGHT UPWARD REVISION IN THIS YEAR'S GROWTH FORECASTS FOR THE US AND EU ECONOMIES

The report stated that the growth expectation for the US economy was increased from 1.9 percent to 2 percent for this year and from 2 percent to 2.1 percent for 2026. The report noted that the growth forecast for the Eurozone economy was increased from 1 percent to 1.2 percent for this year, while the growth forecast for the region's economy for next year was lowered from 1.2 percent to 1.1 percent. The report noted that Germany's growth forecast was increased from 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent for this year, while remaining unchanged at 0.9 percent for next year, and the growth expectation for the French economy was increased from 0.6 percent to 0.7 percent for this year and lowered from 1 percent to 0.9 percent for next year. The report noted that the growth forecast for the Italian economy was held steady at 0.5 percent this year and 0.8 percent next year, while the growth forecast for the Spanish economy was raised from 2.5 percent to 2.9 percent this year and from 1.8 percent to 2 percent next year. The IMF report also noted that the UK's growth forecast was raised from 1.2 percent to 1.3 percent this year and lowered from 1.4 percent to 1.3 percent next year.

The report also stated that the growth forecast for the Japanese economy was increased from 0.7 percent to 1.1 percent for this year and from 0.5 percent to 0.6 percent for next year.